tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9664720033440588582024-03-14T09:01:22.442+08:00Marbo三柱投資法創立人Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-22189302583956560172024-01-21T13:54:00.006+08:002024-01-21T13:54:50.463+08:00最新Marbo宏觀論市第185集內容提要<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDoK1l609YDcA0IxWdD3S4U87SxvaOdXkumCT7bod3FCQRMMwsauxhkVHaVfdZ3ulZYFV9-Ays8skH880guaZonIQLNTWU-2wN7YJH8yl2GwzKVU-S9oQVziTruYM9z20uGa6pONiFUZY57b0mFhWJSjonhQ5nTP4AdpoV-SnOf-ATYNtJ_y7sY0Q0PIJo/s682/682px-John_William_Waterhouse,_The_Sorceress.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="682" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDoK1l609YDcA0IxWdD3S4U87SxvaOdXkumCT7bod3FCQRMMwsauxhkVHaVfdZ3ulZYFV9-Ays8skH880guaZonIQLNTWU-2wN7YJH8yl2GwzKVU-S9oQVziTruYM9z20uGa6pONiFUZY57b0mFhWJSjonhQ5nTP4AdpoV-SnOf-ATYNtJ_y7sY0Q0PIJo/w553-h364/682px-John_William_Waterhouse,_The_Sorceress.png" width="553" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最新</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">宏觀論市第</span><span lang="EN-US">185</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">集內容提要,一如既往各內容皆附包括自家重要圖例及數據:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">1) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">聯儲局沃拿最新言論,洋洋灑灑篇幅甚多,內容多是耳熟能詳,又有誰會認真貫徹看完?然而,魔鬼藏於細節,天道酬勤,認真研究下,卻赫然發現原來沃拿「百萬軍中藏阿斗」,當中一段毫不起眼,聽似無心之言,一般都被傳媒刪掉不出,卻竟然意外地正式引證了筆者之前一直對局方息口政策意圖之論,也正正反而是其中最有啟示性的內容,難道……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">2) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最新一項美國重要研究顯示了驚人內容,揭示了一段隨了筆者外為大家一直跟進,卻不為多少人關注,可能導致美國多家銀行又再面臨巨大風險的事件,其事態嚴重卻原來已是迫在眉睫了!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">3) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美國商業房地產一波未平一波又起,今次卻是大家想都想不到,向來以穩健見稱的資產類別,</span><span lang="ZH-TW"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">背後更隨時是牽連甚廣……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">4) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美國紐約州製造業指數暴跌,費城製造業景氣調查負數持續,美國股市何以卻一升再升……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">5) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">蘇伊士運河船舶數據,市場一直甚少人有注意,隨時是舉足輕重……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">6) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">筆者之前分享過幾個分析後市走勢的重要指標數據及自家圖例,今天又是時候更新再次深入探討之時…</span><span lang="EN-US">..<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">當然,此外還有被市場忽略的不同重點分析,為免被抄襲,不多說了!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本集內容:</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk Patreon (</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可於</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">內搜尋</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主頁連結:</span><span lang="ZH-TW"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk">https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">溫馨提示:</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除新加入時即時過數外</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">會於每月頭第一日</span><span lang="EN-US">(Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所在美國當地時間</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">過數</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-66173513907618579932024-01-16T09:08:00.003+08:002024-01-16T09:10:48.425+08:00最新Marbo宏觀論市第184集內容提要<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6LtxhtLaQrgNTmCNHQzDdCdmevVttmy56GapbYioJp9X_2A75HeB4n_0i-deoHwlqV4lQHD9w7LSEeyxE2fL54i5qfJsd-SX8-4WmRcfB4vF2WKPVArRMIPSTYQ2bN7WP4xCXv2YLWBUNnLQweExW-SB8sNeiDmxnDAg5wH86DRBHlpQ4geLdjy8Be_eJ/s1280/184.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="321" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6LtxhtLaQrgNTmCNHQzDdCdmevVttmy56GapbYioJp9X_2A75HeB4n_0i-deoHwlqV4lQHD9w7LSEeyxE2fL54i5qfJsd-SX8-4WmRcfB4vF2WKPVArRMIPSTYQ2bN7WP4xCXv2YLWBUNnLQweExW-SB8sNeiDmxnDAg5wH86DRBHlpQ4geLdjy8Be_eJ/w572-h321/184.jpg" width="572" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">各位,節目本來已完成,出街前忽然找到一個十分重要的數據!心情興奮!馬上加料趕製:整理資料、畫圖、錄音、剪輯、後期</span><span lang="EN-US">……</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一番努力後,終於搞掂!</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最新</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">宏觀論市第</span><span lang="EN-US">184</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">集內容提要,一如既往各內容皆附重要圖例及數據:</span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美聯儲膠布本來是救市之用,現竟被發現可能已有被人套利之虞</span>……<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">局方的反應</span>…..<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">聯儲局的資產規模一直是左右大市資金流向的重要觀察點之一,這又與令人矚目的隔夜逆回購有何微妙關係?近日局方重磅人物對市場當頭棒喝,又有何玄機?</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美國</span>CPI<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最新數據,深入探討,自會有另一番體會,對大市的判斷或許有不同領悟,那又會是甚麼呢?相信大家明白了底細,大概會更準確分析,又豈會流於坊間輕率之論?</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">繼美國</span>CPI<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">後,最新</span>PPI<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">生產者物價指數數據接踵出爐,市場解讀正面,真的如此嗎?美國股市相關的表現又揭露了甚麼暗潮?</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美國利率期貨市場對美國未來息口走勢最新形勢變化,究竟揭露了甚麼鮮為人知的呢?</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">筆者過去一直對美國通脹的獨特觀點,美聯儲一位重要人物最新言論,卻明確引證了,亦可能令市場吃了一驚!</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美國財金界上演「三娘教子」,隔空舌劍唇槍下卻見各為其主,字裡行間細心研究之下,當然可以發掘出有不少值得大家留意的舉足輕重資訊</span>…..<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">8)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->2024<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年初到,美國工人薪金動向又發生了基礎性變動,影響不容忽視</span>……<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">9)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">正如筆者之言:「針無兩頭利,係就拮親你」,今次所指又是何事?對後市有何啟示?</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">10)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一個研究美國、英國、德國、巴西和南非過千家大型上市公司財務報告的分析,當然不乏令人如夢初醒的發現!</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">當然,此外還有被市場忽略的不同重點分析,為免被抄襲,不多說了!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本集內容:</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk Patreon (</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可於</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">內搜尋</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主頁連結:</span><span lang="ZH-TW"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk">https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">溫馨提示:</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除新加入時即時過數外</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">會於每月頭第一日</span><span lang="EN-US">(Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所在美國當地時間</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">過數</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtWP4-XYzVrn54aDety3goFAUrcu8PVWTaIWk4_6PUmObOmAdv2OTC5yLdCFFiBH8Hbds1PH9m4uOu-X9ZJZVLipHQ1c6H3xxGpPKBbPWDeXz6D2NGPRR_09FqG_PpwUbKn555yLRk9SRv2DHm5UQShO1FJ8jMLE-qZOpBm_UDrkfPv_JdJG8YoTq1DaOB/s450/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtWP4-XYzVrn54aDety3goFAUrcu8PVWTaIWk4_6PUmObOmAdv2OTC5yLdCFFiBH8Hbds1PH9m4uOu-X9ZJZVLipHQ1c6H3xxGpPKBbPWDeXz6D2NGPRR_09FqG_PpwUbKn555yLRk9SRv2DHm5UQShO1FJ8jMLE-qZOpBm_UDrkfPv_JdJG8YoTq1DaOB/s320/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span><p></p><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-4401135666045118012024-01-07T10:26:00.009+08:002024-01-07T10:28:38.259+08:00最新Marbo宏觀論市第183集內容提要<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8UnGkVGBQVBNRSWCITrTGFF6erouXiprWciPLuXI08VJRz29DzlulkY4rXdyw0SOPsZtxYc5-4G5tS4UIV4M-jxlQ-SSIp-GFm9FWds66AsrnzEqtRYeBkwcEJ0ADZ0yhW98jhTW9kzy-OYfP0s7enVKKbKFSKdVtn2yqyUJ4ln7uD2Lo0VQDCRYtajSD/s1280/183.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8UnGkVGBQVBNRSWCITrTGFF6erouXiprWciPLuXI08VJRz29DzlulkY4rXdyw0SOPsZtxYc5-4G5tS4UIV4M-jxlQ-SSIp-GFm9FWds66AsrnzEqtRYeBkwcEJ0ADZ0yhW98jhTW9kzy-OYfP0s7enVKKbKFSKdVtn2yqyUJ4ln7uD2Lo0VQDCRYtajSD/w590-h332/183.jpg" width="590" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">大家好!祝大家新年快樂,人人身體健康,今集是2024年第一次同大家見面,本集封面特別用了財富女神向世人派財富名畫,寓意大家個個賺到笑,財源廣進,投資得心應手!最新Marbo宏觀論市第183集內容提要,一如既往各內容皆附重要圖例及數據:</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">(1) 美國隔夜逆回購又見爆升,回購利率亦見回升,惹來市場不少人猜測,一時之間,眾說不一,好不熱鬧,但見美國股市差不多同一時間從高位回落……究竟真相如何?</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">(2) 最新聯儲局更新了一個官方內部製定的經濟指數,原來對預測未來美國經濟甚有奧妙…..</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">(3) 今星期最矚目的數據,其內在的意義真的就如市場所說的那麼樣嗎?</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">(4) 美國息口走勢應如何觀察,在不同市場尋找到種種蛛絲馬跡,真相已甚囂塵上,一份最新由一眾投行的市場調查報告,在密密麻麻的數據中,只要心緒清一點去深入解讀,赫然發現原來市場一直「被接收到」的訊息已見事有蹺蹊,更可從側面折射出大戶大鱷的心計,陷阱恐怕早已埋下……</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">(5) 環球供應鍊又出事端,如何分析如何觀察?</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">(6) 美國失業率及新增職位數據,市場一直都是在表面看,其對金融市場以至聯儲局動向的深層次意義,可以是鮮有分析,然而,這些本來就是一個舉足輕重的參數啊!</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">(7) 今集除了更新之前的股市分析工具,亦會為大家引進多幾個指數及觀察點,期望對分析後市有更多角度去理解,增加判斷的準繩。</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">當然,此外還有被市場忽略的不同重點分析,為免被抄襲,不多說了!</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">本集內容:Marbo Talk Patreon (可於Patreon內搜尋Marbo Talk)</span><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">主頁連結: </span><a class="x1fey0fg xmper1u x1edh9d7" href="https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk"><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk</span></a><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">溫馨提示:Patreon除新加入時即時過數外,會於每月頭第一日(Patreon所在美國當地時間)過數,請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0nmLA7BzIV8mKogTD1gH5cuGkZVHM5UJehi90nT60rpGQ09rtJEVG8CuyxU0aarHQv7mWY_IRL2bqK1f5CzR5GFaxsSE8c1wrb0KMrZKcEPCAuPQy4ugbRaMtfFi1r6HSgn_E5DlcMx8Uok4mDDJZb_AuvoaMqs7n2ptQLNKvrvC3Edn3zynDOxcAGjPH/s450/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0nmLA7BzIV8mKogTD1gH5cuGkZVHM5UJehi90nT60rpGQ09rtJEVG8CuyxU0aarHQv7mWY_IRL2bqK1f5CzR5GFaxsSE8c1wrb0KMrZKcEPCAuPQy4ugbRaMtfFi1r6HSgn_E5DlcMx8Uok4mDDJZb_AuvoaMqs7n2ptQLNKvrvC3Edn3zynDOxcAGjPH/s320/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-64194852343247966022023-12-31T07:21:00.004+08:002023-12-31T07:39:18.919+08:00最新Marbo宏觀論市第182集內容提要<p> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjgAlaHeXDsgQEgbWA9gPnRCdGtJTHNiJx0j2dGqpN5CRHh-LmXtw0NNHuSppc53j3RPXZq5jWgi9bQUTCDSeNyFa-QtPC9oHXlK2YI3pTdHrzXgp4FA2q9MvgGYKUcylo6cj4S6SZO2LTDCtuC8o9YahbVpUd1cCaZiyxn6OnqtRitOkRISzTDmhNvhLb/s1280/182.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjgAlaHeXDsgQEgbWA9gPnRCdGtJTHNiJx0j2dGqpN5CRHh-LmXtw0NNHuSppc53j3RPXZq5jWgi9bQUTCDSeNyFa-QtPC9oHXlK2YI3pTdHrzXgp4FA2q9MvgGYKUcylo6cj4S6SZO2LTDCtuC8o9YahbVpUd1cCaZiyxn6OnqtRitOkRISzTDmhNvhLb/w586-h329/182.jpg" width="586" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大家好!明天就</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是</span>2024<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span>,
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">先祝大家新年快樂,人人身體健康,個個財源廣進,投資得心應手!</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最新</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">宏觀論市第</span><span lang="EN-US">182</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">集內容提要,一如既往各內容皆附重要圖例及數據:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->(1)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最新金融市場觀察點,注意力已經不知不覺轉移到日元美元的趨勢,形成一個龐大資金流向力量,不可不察</span>……<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->(2)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">過去一個星期,日本央行幾個重要舉動,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">究竟如何解讀?</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->(3)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">甚麼是春鬥?對未來息口政策以至日元走勢有何重要啟示?</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->(4)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日本央行自</span>
2013 <span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年起實行日式</span>QE<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">刺激經濟和推動通脹,</span>2016
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年加碼推行負利率,最新公佈了明年第一季的購債計劃又有何魔鬼細節呢?市場好像一直未有人發現箇中暗號啊!這對一眾大鱷又有何影響?</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->(5)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->2024<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年著名大行的一個機構性投資者調查,對後市走勢又隱藏了甚麼玄機?</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->(6)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">市場最新對美聯儲減息預期,再深入看,不難發現市場謬誤</span>…..<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->(7)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美國息口走勢眾說紛紜,除了市場上最多人云亦云的利率期貨預測外,究竟有沒有其他更可靠的工具呢?</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]-->(8)<span style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今集有一個比較少人知道的指數,如何分析?對股市走勢是否有甚麼奇妙之處?</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">當然,此外還有被市場忽略的不同重點分析,為免被抄襲,不多說了!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本集內容:</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk Patreon (</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可於</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">內搜尋</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主頁連結:</span><span lang="EN-US"> https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">溫馨提示:</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除新加入時即時過數外</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">會於每月頭第一日</span><span lang="EN-US">(Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所在美國當地時間</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">過數</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYwTSsl4YKkTXwnBxX4ECYNdvpV3TqF_TFgbDFyYjfeTNNgyDOAFc1Kn4wVe4wnSZN7NUHVv_4G_uGvbpTSylZHe8CmUgansbHfP_Tvq1G8yRhhYCTeamzH91N6R-a29Dr1ScaL_pE-71TphRPrIG1W_-A0yYhyO5Q8rW8l8Sxj40KFstkrUunYcBIS4by/s450/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYwTSsl4YKkTXwnBxX4ECYNdvpV3TqF_TFgbDFyYjfeTNNgyDOAFc1Kn4wVe4wnSZN7NUHVv_4G_uGvbpTSylZHe8CmUgansbHfP_Tvq1G8yRhhYCTeamzH91N6R-a29Dr1ScaL_pE-71TphRPrIG1W_-A0yYhyO5Q8rW8l8Sxj40KFstkrUunYcBIS4by/w279-h279/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" width="279" /></a></div><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-32571422361784416642023-12-26T11:54:00.003+08:002023-12-26T11:54:51.175+08:00最新Marbo宏觀論市第181集內容提要<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPzysSwWZs-j2NJj4RsxRawAcXOjPbY1FG9TGf8LwoG_waRyOu8ERDbHBw6wwOzAgkdGm9IDh2M6z31oLqzzHq2pYixT1o4jf5kuMu3SF9-iipeqonyOTHKYn_6yUuEhegEhEqLYGeSlsnBgdTPA5DDzfR99KozVHYtrxGmJ_GivzTf6q94e7uCxVedRyl/s1280/181.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPzysSwWZs-j2NJj4RsxRawAcXOjPbY1FG9TGf8LwoG_waRyOu8ERDbHBw6wwOzAgkdGm9IDh2M6z31oLqzzHq2pYixT1o4jf5kuMu3SF9-iipeqonyOTHKYn_6yUuEhegEhEqLYGeSlsnBgdTPA5DDzfR99KozVHYtrxGmJ_GivzTf6q94e7uCxVedRyl/w556-h313/181.jpg" width="556" /></a></div><br /> <span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">最新</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">宏觀論市第</span><span lang="EN-US">181</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">集內容提要,一如既往各內容皆附重要圖例及數據:</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">各位,正如大家知道,由於筆者每星期製作一集節目,都會用上一整個星期的時間去準備,市場上海量訊息一方面要搜集分析再篩選,為了最合時等及美股市收市,過程中最快都只可以在星期六開始錄製,當然,部份歷史內容可以在之前錄起,但總的合輯及編輯還是要在星期六下午後才可以進行,這還要找出相關內容立論的證據,最直接有效就是圖表及新聞或官方評論等,有時官方的表述不夠,筆者亦會行多一步自行製作圖表,這當然比截圖來得費時,為了盡力確保圖例文例特別是私人圖無誤,又要花上不少時間去校對,有時效對的時間比製作更花精力,還未算上錄音剪輯的功夫……筆者不才,完成每週一個半小時節目實在不易。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">當然,同樣是做節目,各有各做,筆者只是放不下對自己的要求,為了可以安心去睡覺,只可以堅持原則,引用日本劇常聽到的一句:請原諒我的任性啊!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因此,雖然明白大家頗喜歡筆者出「節目提要」,因為節目標題區區字數實在不可能把節目全部內容劃出,出文實在有助大家更好了解內容,惟因為時間關係,有時未必能出文,前幾集就是例子,如果大家細心看一看各集內容應該不難明白箇中所用資源及心血。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今天趁有幾天假期,筆者可以為剛出的節目寫一寫提要:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(1) 2024</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年美聯儲減息六次,如今已在人云亦云之間成了主流共識,所見所聽一眾評論都都充斥了如此說法。其實只要略有花心思或者內行一點去想一想已知道箇中有問題,問題只是說者可能根本連</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">FOMC</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的最基本運作及息口歷史都不知道吧!或許,當中亦混有明知底蘊卻別有用心?為什麼?而所謂的六次減息又是意味著甚麼呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(2) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">聯儲局一向都有內部研究去更好掌握市場,息口走勢正是其一,那麼在減息議題上,局方的調查結果又是如何呢?如此,不是可以更進一步看清楚市場真正的估算及計價嗎?這個研究當然是目前市場鮮有討論的啦!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(3) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">剛過去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">FOMC</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">會議當日美股大爆升,除了夾淡倉,主力又會是誰買起來的呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(4) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">筆者今次會引進大家另一個資金流的重要指標,及多個角度數據,加上另一個之前一直有跟進的指標去看一看美股市的走勢,期望可以一窺玄機。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(5) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最新</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">PCE</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">數據一如之前所料,為什麼當日美國股市升勢受阻,是誰在從中作梗?不必想得太遠,那可以美國本土的事啊!這又對美國經濟有何啟示?是短暫的還是長遠的問題?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(6) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最近有大行出來為美國消費者消費力強勁一再拍心口背書,的確光看目前數據可能是頭頭是道,但筆者卻找到研究令人耳目一新,實在不可不知!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(7) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美聯儲的鷹鴿急轉彎,加上日本的狼來了再狼來了,實在不可能令認真的投資者不心存疑惑,亦不難令人聯想到局方是否知道了甚麼大家不知道的呢?那會是甚麼?筆者四出尋覓,最後在最近聯儲局一個靜悄悄進行了的不尋常行動,在一個全不起眼小小幾行字寫的局方通告中,順瓜摸藤,最後連相關的年報及資產負產表都研究一通,終於找到了鮮為人知的一個可能性……美日央行之間似乎出了甚麼……</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">8) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在追查過程中,今日美股表現,實在很難不令筆者想起了一段親身經歷過的股市歷史……</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">當然,此外還有被市場忽略的不同重點分析,為免被抄襲,不多說了!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本集內容:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Marbo Talk Patreon (</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">內搜尋</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Marbo Talk)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主頁連結:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">溫馨提示:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除新加入時即時過數外</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">會於每月頭第一日</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所在美國當地時間</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">過數</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhevdSamTA_o1psq21eMb6kKsB9GXsk_FSCe8BnUIKM-tazXx7zkraTegphiuUTyRm6kRyXb1AYCVcYJRyPTZParNwHC50oQesRkXK0TzQdbMcbyG-qJorcYWeIbVjIwsWb67YPnndS0te47Qvr6TdSiOm89ybvTLi1LqqWv6XWnut1Q4IrU1G8CtTqC0Sw/s450/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhevdSamTA_o1psq21eMb6kKsB9GXsk_FSCe8BnUIKM-tazXx7zkraTegphiuUTyRm6kRyXb1AYCVcYJRyPTZParNwHC50oQesRkXK0TzQdbMcbyG-qJorcYWeIbVjIwsWb67YPnndS0te47Qvr6TdSiOm89ybvTLi1LqqWv6XWnut1Q4IrU1G8CtTqC0Sw/w257-h257/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" width="257" /></a></div><br /><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-57920250550115138942023-09-16T12:09:00.010+08:002023-09-17T10:13:10.305+08:00Marbo宏觀論市166集內容提要(本週日9/17播放)<p> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_iRXhJ_w5gBQIjmfTnaQ76q4CSg37akkuKFKQbgquC4f2OHR4gl0D19THd0JiJAldYQFVdjD_LoBKjtFAPNH1K4NFbgQooeOP1aq7XEgStyB3RXAadBG_cd66ikuwZ5JhzxGzbFoPWCySnVL-8BBXbM-A8HgT01_l1v8kApis6AEJYxKQnTaV6oTKt088/s620/2023-08-09_165035.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="311" data-original-width="620" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_iRXhJ_w5gBQIjmfTnaQ76q4CSg37akkuKFKQbgquC4f2OHR4gl0D19THd0JiJAldYQFVdjD_LoBKjtFAPNH1K4NFbgQooeOP1aq7XEgStyB3RXAadBG_cd66ikuwZ5JhzxGzbFoPWCySnVL-8BBXbM-A8HgT01_l1v8kApis6AEJYxKQnTaV6oTKt088/w619-h311/2023-08-09_165035.jpg" width="619" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">宏觀論市</span><span lang="EN-US">166</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">集內容提要</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本週日</span><span lang="EN-US">9/17</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">播放</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">(1) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">過去多年,美國國債全球滲透,尤其是長債更已是無遠弗界,今日息口高企,會帶來甚麼?對股市又有何重大影響?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">(2) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">歐美英環環相扣,研究環球經濟不可不看美國,研究美國經濟亦不可以不看歐英多國,然而,本地財經界甚少深入研究,實在是有欠全面,分析亦因此可能顯得被動,要有前瞻視野,實在不可不察。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">(3) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">歐洲加息,歐元兌美元不升反跌,箇中有何玄機?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">(4) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日本也是常被忽略的一環,很多人都沒有發現已在悄然發生著重大變化。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">(5) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">回顧美國多年通脹歷史,有一個行內人心知肚明的魔咒數字,本地好像也沒多少「專家」知道啊!是不知還是不給大家知道呢?就由大家去判斷好了!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">(6) </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美國最新</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">數據一如本欄所料,也呼應了過去一直的分析,相信同學都不會感到意外,後市究竟如何掌握呢?筆者當然又有市場未有察覺到的重點要跟大家分享啦!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除了以上,當然還有被市場忽略的不同熱點分析,為免被抄襲,不多說了!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本集內容:</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk Patreon (</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可於</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">內搜尋</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主頁連結:</span><span lang="EN-US"> https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">溫馨提示:</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除新加入時即時過數外</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">會於每月頭第一日</span><span lang="EN-US">(Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所在美國當地時間</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">過數</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span><o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW5gB5SWCyL63h7gcm6Sin4cETTuFVL0s6gi7XdhVS9JRAdvhtcfxHw-J8ywZ_vO8vaPyUPmnYp5aJvnNBQIoXPkiBmKl7ihgU1nup3__KdHIivrDUTNXhffvNnWj0CfJgxxz5aLSFa9De1awqmjuToa8cai2pJbpLK5kFiWBggAh5oPOKG_ASYURZ4sul/s450/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW5gB5SWCyL63h7gcm6Sin4cETTuFVL0s6gi7XdhVS9JRAdvhtcfxHw-J8ywZ_vO8vaPyUPmnYp5aJvnNBQIoXPkiBmKl7ihgU1nup3__KdHIivrDUTNXhffvNnWj0CfJgxxz5aLSFa9De1awqmjuToa8cai2pJbpLK5kFiWBggAh5oPOKG_ASYURZ4sul/w273-h273/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" width="273" /></a></div><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-23261596264098279962023-09-10T08:25:00.010+08:002023-09-10T10:08:40.789+08:00Marbo宏觀論市165集內容提要(本週日9/10播放)<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV2ryUUaQSvrFiBhdiJkCrmz3bkM6-gVbZ2Cq9TLIt_lvat7c-OmSQa1Y0gutvqiuO1253snvJ9sM12l_3VCOB1aolIoXp1GllEwLE-WC60uFm5Qcy09xyL2M25cCzYC1ABk7sdXSPnXt16lj5Qn9cFxzhtiFW5-5yLRdfiAVj_ajlOYEM3MlKWHJSG-Ez/s1223/1223px-Claude_Monet_-_The_Houses_of_Parliament,_Sunset.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1223" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV2ryUUaQSvrFiBhdiJkCrmz3bkM6-gVbZ2Cq9TLIt_lvat7c-OmSQa1Y0gutvqiuO1253snvJ9sM12l_3VCOB1aolIoXp1GllEwLE-WC60uFm5Qcy09xyL2M25cCzYC1ABk7sdXSPnXt16lj5Qn9cFxzhtiFW5-5yLRdfiAVj_ajlOYEM3MlKWHJSG-Ez/w587-h466/1223px-Claude_Monet_-_The_Houses_of_Parliament,_Sunset.jpg" width="587" /></a></div><div class="sc-1b0nc7s-0 fKpyuu" data-tag="post-content-collapse" style="cursor: auto;"><div class="sc-kiIyQV cSEgOM" style="height: 498px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; transition: all 500ms cubic-bezier(0.19, 1, 0.22, 1) 0s;"><div aria-hidden="false" class="sc-cLpAjG kpIFjy" style="display: flow-root;"><div class="sc-1sp3zau-0 fYcGch sc-rcywpx-0 hRKPxe" data-tag="post-content" style="font-size: var(--global-fontSizes-body-md) !important; line-height: 1.5; white-space-collapse: preserve-breaks;"><div class="sc-1ye87qi-0 eskKQs" style="font-size: inherit;"><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="4hqjs-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="4hqjs-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="4hqjs-0-0">Marbo宏觀論市165集內容提要(本週日9/10播放):</span></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="46sp8-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="46sp8-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="46sp8-0-0">(1) 甚麼是行內常說的「央行惡夢」?當然,惡夢不只一個或者一種,筆者為何又說起呢?當然有前瞻啦!</span></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="3msmc-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3msmc-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="3msmc-0-0">(2) 英國名城伯明翰財困,眾說紛紜,有人輕描淡寫,不以為然;有人煞有介事,誇大其辭,市場仍是一貫的人云亦云,隨便高談闊論,真是有夠財經界娛樂化。然而,究竟事件真相如何?對後市的影響及意義在哪?卻是比較少聽到有太多深入認真的分析。</span></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="c696h-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="c696h-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="c696h-0-0">(3) 美國服務業PMI數據出了個重大異象,是甚麼原因?有何啟示呢?引證了甚麼呢?這些難道美聯儲會不知道嗎?如果知道的話,為什麼局方一直三緘其口呢?背後有何苦衷,還是蹺蹊,還是陰謀?這些可是要一層一層剝下來分析的了!</span></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="be7fc-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="be7fc-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="be7fc-0-0">(4) 美國最新兩份就業報告與失業率一對照之下,嚇然發現……</span></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="7kdi8-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7kdi8-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="7kdi8-0-0">(5) 隨著近日油價反彈趨升,對未來通脹又有何影響?是不足為患,還是暗藏殺機?</span></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="5u04b-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5u04b-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="5u04b-0-0">(6) 美股又似是故人來,究竟是虎頭蛇尾還是重蹈覆轍呢?那是一個筆者靈光一閃畫出來的併圖,見笑了!</span></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="aa1pb-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="aa1pb-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="aa1pb-0-0">(7) 除了以上,當然還有被市場忽略的不同熱點分析,為免被抄襲,不多說了!</span></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="d54e8-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="d54e8-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="d54e8-0-0">本集內容:Marbo Talk Patreon (可於Patreon內搜尋Marbo Talk)</span></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="818h5-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="818h5-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="818h5-0-0">主頁連結: </span><a class="sc-afquy-0 kpuBjA" href="https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk" style="background-color: transparent; cursor: pointer;"><span data-offset-key="818h5-1-0">https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk</span></a></div></div><div class="DraftEditor-paragraphElement" data-block="true" data-editor="41j08" data-offset-key="1abot-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 1em 0px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1abot-0-0" style="direction: ltr; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="1abot-0-0">溫馨提示:Patreon除新加入時即時過數外,會於每月頭第一日(Patreon所在美國當地時間)過數,請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span></div></div><div><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="sc-fotOHu hkucrX" data-tag="post-details" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0rem; padding-bottom: var(--global-space-16); padding-left: 0rem; padding-right: 0rem; padding-top: var(--global-space-16); transition: all 300ms cubic-bezier(0.19, 1, 0.22, 1) 0s;"><div class="sc-fotOHu KTPnY" style="-webkit-box-pack: justify; 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margin: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 0px; transition: all 300ms cubic-bezier(0.19, 1, 0.22, 1) 0s; width: fit-content;"><div aria-hidden="true" class="sc-jRQBWg jVEoqB" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: unset;"><svg viewbox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path clip-rule="evenodd" d="M14.99 10.6a.581.581 0 0 1-.394-.499l-.307-4a.601.601 0 0 1 .385-.604 3.48 3.48 0 0 0 1.754-1.613.606.606 0 0 0 .073-.292.596.596 0 0 0-.596-.596H8.098a.596.596 0 0 0-.596.596c0 .102.024.202.073.292a3.48 3.48 0 0 0 1.754 1.613c.248.095.404.34.386.604l-.308 4a.581.581 0 0 1-.394.5c-.92.326-2.261 1.223-2.261 2.893v.154c0 .33.267.596.596.596h9.307c.33 0 .596-.267.596-.596v-.154c0-1.67-1.34-2.567-2.261-2.893zm-2.312-6.104h-1.356l-.106 1.52c.001.063 0 .127-.005.19v.01l-.309 4.01v.009a2.081 2.081 0 0 1-1.394 1.782 2.367 2.367 0 0 0-.883.56c-.063.066-.012.167.079.167H15.3c.09 0 .141-.101.079-.167a2.367 2.367 0 0 0-.884-.56 2.081 2.081 0 0 1-1.393-1.782v-.01l-.31-4.018a2.538 2.538 0 0 1-.005-.151l-.109-1.56z" fill-rule="evenodd"></path><path d="M11.254 14.994h1.509c.208.01.37.185.361.393l-.034.71a47.533 47.533 0 0 1-.548 5.277.58.58 0 0 1-1.085 0 47.484 47.484 0 0 1-.548-5.277l-.034-.71v-.018a.377.377 0 0 1 .379-.375z"></path></svg></div></button></div></div></div><div class="sc-fotOHu fVcoqz" style="-webkit-box-pack: start; align-items: flex-start; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); display: flex; flex-flow: row; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0rem; padding: 0rem; place-content: flex-start; transition: all 300ms cubic-bezier(0.19, 1, 0.22, 1) 0s;"></div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-68855485206748506262023-08-17T03:53:00.003+08:002023-08-17T03:53:23.823+08:00Marbo Patreon節目160集已上載播放<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2XwMwS43yotg8_iUCJrYMSxACBTIXzhxHyeVS-STfbjacMRwEd58tiLrgA1GR54ky1wyGux0QVGSHIX7NJTDvsVyZwb1jRUHF_h6kOc_qtR6fLYm5iHfXE2Bi1Z29ryw3z7uiuQIPtpl2Apy9witqLiwIKIF7bL_hGI8wuiYskPlCgjDELygbl6HyZzIF/s1520/John_William_Godward_-_Dolce_Far_Niente_(1904).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1520" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2XwMwS43yotg8_iUCJrYMSxACBTIXzhxHyeVS-STfbjacMRwEd58tiLrgA1GR54ky1wyGux0QVGSHIX7NJTDvsVyZwb1jRUHF_h6kOc_qtR6fLYm5iHfXE2Bi1Z29ryw3z7uiuQIPtpl2Apy9witqLiwIKIF7bL_hGI8wuiYskPlCgjDELygbl6HyZzIF/w538-h355/John_William_Godward_-_Dolce_Far_Niente_(1904).jpg" width="538" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">各位,想大家多啲時間思考,今集</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0;">Marbo
Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">節目已上載播放,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0;">(</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本週日依舊播出另一集新節目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0;">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,本集節目封面及標題如下,歡迎蒞臨閱覽!</span><span style="color: #0070c0;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">宏觀論市</span><span lang="EN-US">160</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-HK; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">歷史為鑒軟著陸</span></b><b><span style="color: #0070c0; mso-ansi-language: EN-HK;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-HK; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美酒醉人局中局</span></b><b><span style="color: #0070c0; mso-ansi-language: EN-HK;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-HK; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">鏡花水月美如夢</span></b><b><span style="color: #0070c0; mso-ansi-language: EN-HK;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-HK; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">何時醒覺真面目</span></b><span style="color: #0070c0;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本集內容:</span><span lang="EN-US"> Marbo Talk Patreon (</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可於</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">內搜尋</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主頁連結:</span><span lang="ZH-TW"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk">https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">溫馨提示:</span><span lang="EN-US"> Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除新加入時即時過數外</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">會於每月頭第一日</span><span lang="EN-US">(Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所在美國當地時間</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">過數</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkSmZaVpW9jg6SmqMotn5m49uftw5A7HPSis0xekLKXKfHEyje4UA9JTdVgLSm-UveMhvNFAa6aL9aYDluLyrR6Wnw-tHFzswaP-g6Nda7rJ-RA2r4gbzjBKaZLzwfmi6dKaR9eg5Wpqwujzn-ZSf-S10Tmt6UskRzmqwYG8U4AyEvUHPSqnn0T234kvFd/s450/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkSmZaVpW9jg6SmqMotn5m49uftw5A7HPSis0xekLKXKfHEyje4UA9JTdVgLSm-UveMhvNFAa6aL9aYDluLyrR6Wnw-tHFzswaP-g6Nda7rJ-RA2r4gbzjBKaZLzwfmi6dKaR9eg5Wpqwujzn-ZSf-S10Tmt6UskRzmqwYG8U4AyEvUHPSqnn0T234kvFd/w205-h205/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" width="205" /></a></div><br /><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-74541183282730417362023-08-15T10:19:00.002+08:002023-08-15T10:19:39.270+08:00靈感到!<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlKWLMjC4N4lcyRRGAa93UACMkPa730Qa2K5UTgbh6zszmwmOPKXOw-sl1QN0nYgMYUo9_6MooEysTAIdssAIND9_M44aHtiqKbXuMa8LznnItbg9qMO3e9i5Q6VHdCvrN6l8fiX6Q3aiCLr-cW3-ZvogbHpbyNXtnr4q523zrzcdCsIt7_4yHO4ibreUg/s1080/Caspar_David_Friedrich_-_Wanderer_above_the_sea_of_fog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="843" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlKWLMjC4N4lcyRRGAa93UACMkPa730Qa2K5UTgbh6zszmwmOPKXOw-sl1QN0nYgMYUo9_6MooEysTAIdssAIND9_M44aHtiqKbXuMa8LznnItbg9qMO3e9i5Q6VHdCvrN6l8fiX6Q3aiCLr-cW3-ZvogbHpbyNXtnr4q523zrzcdCsIt7_4yHO4ibreUg/s320/Caspar_David_Friedrich_-_Wanderer_above_the_sea_of_fog.jpg" width="250" /></a></div><p></p><div class="stackable mb-xs" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(11, 12, 15, 0.95); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: var(--global-space-4);"><div class="sc-fotOHu jvdevC" style="-webkit-box-pack: justify; align-items: flex-start; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row; margin: 0rem; padding: 0rem; place-content: flex-start space-between; transition: all 300ms cubic-bezier(0.19, 1, 0.22, 1) 0s;"><span class="sc-s43277-0 dFlAZn" data-tag="post-title" style="cursor: pointer; font-size: var(--global-fontSizes-heading-lg) !important; font-weight: var(--global-fontWeights-heading-default);"><p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 10px 0px !important; white-space-collapse: preserve-breaks;">各位同學,靈感到!近日聯儲局官員的一番言論不其然令筆者想起了一些有趣的事,追查之下找到了越來越多資料,實在是欲罷不能啊!昨天一直在搜集資料,對比,排解論點,做畫圖例及註解,好忙!當然好開心啦!今個星期日節目出街希望對大家有點用啦!</p><p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 10px 0px !important; white-space-collapse: preserve-breaks;">大家都知筆者個節目一向都係用成個星期去準備嘅,點解要星期日先出街?因為要睇埋成個星期嘅環球金融市場變化引證論點,再篩選過準備好的內容,有時是全數不要,重新做過的,所以搜集了過百圖例最後只會用上十幅八幅(呢條友成日都係咁架啦!),主題內容定案後,再補充資料圖例加註釋標記等,所以大部份都係星期六錄製嘅,因此都會好忙,因為會來回檢視節目,所以後期剪輯最少十幾個鐘。</p><p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 10px 0px !important; white-space-collapse: preserve-breaks;">Do what you like, like what you do!</p><p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 10px 0px !important; white-space-collapse: preserve-breaks;">Marbo,</p><p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 10px 0px !important; white-space-collapse: preserve-breaks;">2023/8/14<span style="font-weight: var(--global-fontWeights-heading-default);"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本集內容:</span>
Marbo Talk Patreon (<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可於</span>Patreon<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">內搜尋</span>Marbo
Talk)</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主頁連結:</span><span lang="ZH-TW"> </span><a href="https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk</span></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr7NAgowPJdaom9fEgccDKN-QKGQz9RIyNTlV3Dv6c9S6Er1po0y0I6MgyJXJ9dBs_pggXtcoEdBepW6fDwGBUJhvjL3yfu5YqoqX-sNDndCdgrY3oKj9MYrcOJAc1Hrn_P7AuDRwR49Wi8AOVuyPoB2Z-D0qZZLwLMHJAaGLzdFgX5dbSMrz21ujSqsuR/s450/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr7NAgowPJdaom9fEgccDKN-QKGQz9RIyNTlV3Dv6c9S6Er1po0y0I6MgyJXJ9dBs_pggXtcoEdBepW6fDwGBUJhvjL3yfu5YqoqX-sNDndCdgrY3oKj9MYrcOJAc1Hrn_P7AuDRwR49Wi8AOVuyPoB2Z-D0qZZLwLMHJAaGLzdFgX5dbSMrz21ujSqsuR/s320/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p></span></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-79142433174955441892023-08-12T21:11:00.001+08:002023-08-12T21:11:34.362+08:00最新本週日Marbo宏觀論市159集內容提要<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq75SI2qNb2WchgnaSzADTdNlPHGgg7bVbrTFS12I3ot3PeeFFdRWRpqu5QSXOwGzAa3HRKH_DI4yWtYQLvdIkHExsrZg5UaZqTqe00i140_FwXrUtERV4F1YkMtK-2_e6ZT7IGWk6MyiSJqJYyWU6F3cHH2v-23kok5NrphyC2ieXqVfzeTQtCrcqfEho/s790/Juliet_-_Philip_H._Calderon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="578" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq75SI2qNb2WchgnaSzADTdNlPHGgg7bVbrTFS12I3ot3PeeFFdRWRpqu5QSXOwGzAa3HRKH_DI4yWtYQLvdIkHExsrZg5UaZqTqe00i140_FwXrUtERV4F1YkMtK-2_e6ZT7IGWk6MyiSJqJYyWU6F3cHH2v-23kok5NrphyC2ieXqVfzeTQtCrcqfEho/s320/Juliet_-_Philip_H._Calderon.jpg" width="234" /></a></div><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">各位,過去一周有不少市場重點,對後市頗有啟示,不過,一如既往,市場雜音多,令人眼花撩亂,投資者首要就是懂得篩選。筆者一直致力分析市場,先是廣泛搜集資料,然後篩選出重點,尤其是被市場忽略的,就更值得與大家探討深入分析。</span> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之前筆者已回應同學對加息與加租關係的疑問,節目中道理已說明,今集將進一步以美國及加拿大歷史數據去引證,圖文並茂。或許有人認為事不關己,其實經濟各環節都是環環相扣,一理通百理明,前車可鑑,甚至舉一反三也。</span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">隨著美國股市反彈,市場上對美國經濟衰退之聲已漸消逝,這是明顯言論「被價格帶著走」的現象,這一點大家只要明白財經行業運作,自然見怪不怪。不過,作為投資者不是為別人利益做決定。筆者嘗試以另一個角度去一探究竟。一些日常生活很貼地的數據,不失為更有啟發性的經濟觀察,而且意義深遠。</span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">國際三大評級機構近來對美國動作多多,市場一貫的要不是掉以輕心,就是誇大其詞,兩者都未見客觀持平認真地理解重點,究辦事件背後意義如何?對市場以及後市影響何在?往後大家又要注意甚麼呢?</span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美股其中最大動力之一就是身家暴漲的散戶,究竟如何觀察其中變化?有沒有甚麼蛛絲馬跡可以一探其情?</span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美國最新通脹,正如筆者早前與大家一直分析所料,初現回馬槍,究竟如何分析?市場仍是眾說紛紜,其實細讀數據變化,已不難看出走勢。此外,還有一個暗中改變了的基本因素,卻是市場至今一直忽略了。</span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Marbo<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">2023/8/12<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">節目內容:</span><span lang="EN-US"> Marbo Talk Patreon (</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">可於</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">內搜尋</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主頁連結:</span><span lang="ZH-TW"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk">https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">溫馨提示:</span><span lang="EN-US"> Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除新加入時即時過數外</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">會於每月頭第一日</span><span lang="EN-US">(Patreon</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所在美國當地時間</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">過數</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtgNIXWORCzTzIVxL_I_3WgKtal0Oyt-uD22Wy_bmKYtBmTr6Dk_n-LttPKT2uPgxV7a1HbBlpyg8HpEgeJSQb76ffoaW7AhJTCenaxwInmk36fMADOCg441An4t6lmu6Q8aYJ9GPFJWscCsbk6j20zQLTxEMA3P-W7k4v4ViXmwEp-_eLffgkSGmzjG8d/s450/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="450" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtgNIXWORCzTzIVxL_I_3WgKtal0Oyt-uD22Wy_bmKYtBmTr6Dk_n-LttPKT2uPgxV7a1HbBlpyg8HpEgeJSQb76ffoaW7AhJTCenaxwInmk36fMADOCg441An4t6lmu6Q8aYJ9GPFJWscCsbk6j20zQLTxEMA3P-W7k4v4ViXmwEp-_eLffgkSGmzjG8d/s320/MARBO%20PATREON%20QR%20G.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></p></div></blockquote></blockquote><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-80521405038544615662022-11-03T08:35:00.000+08:002022-11-03T19:13:30.594+08:00Marbo@Patreon<p> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9lnObfWreXNd3jIfyODu5gArwYYJRSBJMxT6Z_EDQ6uQeyk9912QdIc5djCe-PICvQRlm14WRPBK1a3ittW6wehn3vmSLkxK4RFVFa0MADmjYjgMLyj473R9cVAcFMDG4qSFOcja29fgZf8f5vFiAWxTZyuxQ_zUWXk9dnJfprrJ6ik_LyPZgQK3gBA/s1881/Marbo%20Page.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1881" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9lnObfWreXNd3jIfyODu5gArwYYJRSBJMxT6Z_EDQ6uQeyk9912QdIc5djCe-PICvQRlm14WRPBK1a3ittW6wehn3vmSLkxK4RFVFa0MADmjYjgMLyj473R9cVAcFMDG4qSFOcja29fgZf8f5vFiAWxTZyuxQ_zUWXk9dnJfprrJ6ik_LyPZgQK3gBA/w644-h263/Marbo%20Page.png" width="644" /></a></p><p></p><span style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;"><div style="text-align: left;">各位,<span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span>「宏觀論市」<span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span>節目,逢星期六下午<span lang="EN-US">6:00PM</span>準時播放,歡迎蒞臨閱覽!</div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US">Marbo Talk Patreon</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">主頁連結:</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk">https://www.patreon.com/marbotalk</a></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">溫馨提示:</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">除新加入時即時過數外,會於每月頭第一日</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">美國時間</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: PMingLiU, serif;">過數,請留意時差及系統運作情況。</span></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span lang="EN-US"> </span><p></p></div><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-20824627690671142732022-10-03T12:15:00.007+08:002023-05-11T23:34:22.391+08:00Marbo 247移動平均線版權所有<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">原創「</span><span lang="EN-US">247</span><span style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">移動平均線」或稱「</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo 247</span><span style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">移動平均線」,已於</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">「宏觀論市」第</span><span lang="EN-US">111</span><span style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">集</span><span lang="EN-US">Patreon</span><span style="font-family: "PMingLiU",serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">節目內首度發表,版權所有,此記。</span>Marbo, 2022/10/3</p><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-11838520962091772352016-08-05T23:15:00.001+08:002023-05-11T23:34:09.802+08:00BACH CRAB CANON + 2 NEW CRAB CANONS BASED ON BACH'S BY MAPOCHI ( MARBO).<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg87B3NKDZ0m6bUQiiVOmLhw3bfcGnzh3P2bZxk3NVXlBGSGkIhfk6vg3OA9ZBxQAISO8fHgDiAzchCtryk2f9HUa9uObjH_U7FnwkSxGHlpg50Cow_4Z74KNG6He2z1MayEww_YqFYyBiY/s1600/Bach+MV+COVER+01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg87B3NKDZ0m6bUQiiVOmLhw3bfcGnzh3P2bZxk3NVXlBGSGkIhfk6vg3OA9ZBxQAISO8fHgDiAzchCtryk2f9HUa9uObjH_U7FnwkSxGHlpg50Cow_4Z74KNG6He2z1MayEww_YqFYyBiY/s640/Bach+MV+COVER+01.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
CLICK TO WATCH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPAjnhdCYns&feature=youtu.be<br />
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BACH CRAB CANON + 2 NEW CRAB CANONS BASED ON BACH'S BY MAPOCHI ( MARBO).Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-26620004092672780442016-07-19T18:04:00.002+08:002023-05-11T23:33:28.903+08:00Pachelbel Canon Piano Concert Grand HiFi Recording By Marbo.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFptJrUv1T1qmBdvvHKq4rxbya0QltSTGn0a4NZUJ_Nrfcrxhqn2C7Fso4s3gwboCLIX3WueORRO5l9-qDHue1RPfewHbbiWup1wwtqc47kcyp1_RbaqbcW1NviAo-_VME2ANGjTyUQzPr/s1600/CANON+LOTUS+blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFptJrUv1T1qmBdvvHKq4rxbya0QltSTGn0a4NZUJ_Nrfcrxhqn2C7Fso4s3gwboCLIX3WueORRO5l9-qDHue1RPfewHbbiWup1wwtqc47kcyp1_RbaqbcW1NviAo-_VME2ANGjTyUQzPr/s640/CANON+LOTUS+blog.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgybjJYMxHigxPUrsI3C3rbx0lNdGu8v039MX_rWHtwz91NWBA0fHsseZNda-bVGv-q-F75u7V0NwR3vWc5tD56QBfJk6nOcWXwq8EwjUM6JCy3r43rcaReSA6BiAutT5-xzCnFPS7Fj57a/s1600/Pachelbel%2527s_Canon_-_Mus.MS_16481-8_Page_1_72.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="530" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgybjJYMxHigxPUrsI3C3rbx0lNdGu8v039MX_rWHtwz91NWBA0fHsseZNda-bVGv-q-F75u7V0NwR3vWc5tD56QBfJk6nOcWXwq8EwjUM6JCy3r43rcaReSA6BiAutT5-xzCnFPS7Fj57a/s640/Pachelbel%2527s_Canon_-_Mus.MS_16481-8_Page_1_72.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Canon In D (Pachelbel) Piano Concert Grand
HiFi Recording By Marbo (</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">帕赫貝爾卡農曲鋼琴發燒錄音)</span>.Piano Arrangement & Music
Production by Benjamin Mapochi (Marbo).</div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: 新細明體;">按連結收聽</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">:</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_19hfDgxd4&feature=youtu.be">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_19hfDgxd4&feature=youtu.be</a></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span> </div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Photo</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">(1)Canon In D (Pachelbel) Piano Concert
Grand HiFi Recording By Marbo</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">(2)Manuscript of Canon by Pachelbel
(music), Anon. (this manuscript copy), Staatsbibliothek zu </span><st1:state><st1:place><span lang="EN-US">Berlin</span></st1:place></st1:state><span lang="EN-US"> (scan),
IMSLP user Feduol (IMSLP upload) -
http://imslp.org/wiki/Canon_and_Gigue_in_D_major_%28Pachelbel,_Johann%29,
Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=43725536<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-3951619094883947852016-06-22T16:40:00.000+08:002016-06-25T16:41:20.261+08:00三柱投資法口訣<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicKHNy_dWV_G31cCivlySu-vDnGH66CLKyT2uZXGhkOoeb27G-Wk0y755jkXe5o9rnkVsINk6tm0fBrA0tF5ISRUaW1CSru-vrfqXBWfNAyW573oFpqLngya2E_IXf1YWdotx0nPf_LgdG/s1600/454px-Carrier_Belleuse_Pierre_The_Ballet_Lesson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicKHNy_dWV_G31cCivlySu-vDnGH66CLKyT2uZXGhkOoeb27G-Wk0y755jkXe5o9rnkVsINk6tm0fBrA0tF5ISRUaW1CSru-vrfqXBWfNAyW573oFpqLngya2E_IXf1YWdotx0nPf_LgdG/s640/454px-Carrier_Belleuse_Pierre_The_Ballet_Lesson.jpg" width="484" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">三柱投資攻守備,本金三分各一柱,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">不輕言戰等時機,累積財富靠點滴。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">利大提防本無歸,賺錢其次風險先,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">不買個股買大市,實貨基金不借錢。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">何時出手攻守備?持貨見升利何為?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">不上不落又如何?攻守策略下說明。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">歷史低位延長線,單位數字市盈率,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">攻其恐慌市急跌,危機崩潰絕望時。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">升市有貨等出貨,層層到價層層食,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">持貨留本只套利,一柱在手視長線。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">跌市有錢等買貨,反彈平手沽一半,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">四成出守變八折,兩成溝貨得九折。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">牛皮窄幅等收息,少聽消息少睇市,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">修身自如平常心,高低潮汐自然知。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">萬不得以睇錯市,最後一手救備時,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">如果之前守紀律,今日何以後悔遲?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">Marbo,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt;">2016/6/22</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">本文插圖:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.0pt;">Carrier Belleuse Pierre ‘The
Ballet Lesson’ Wikimedia Commons. By<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><st1:city><st1:place><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.0pt;">Pierre</span></st1:place></st1:city><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 10.0pt;">Carrier-Belleuse -
http://www.artrenewal.org/asp/database/art.asp?aid=1166 ; upload 2008,
Public Domain,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4240639">https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4240639</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">免責聲明︰本文乃作者個人心得,版權所有,未經嚴謹學術及大量數據驗證,只可作參考,亦不可視作任何投資方法或建議,當中亦可能出現計算上的誤差,極端例子及立論的粗疏而有所偏差,請以獨立思考判斷之,本部落絕對反對高風險投機及短線投資,例如是窩輪,期指,期權,槓桿,短線買賣等等,本人之看法絕不適用!所有內容亦只是推測,只供參考,不可盡信!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">本網站包含的內容和信息乃根據公開資料分析和演釋,該公開資料,乃從相信屬可靠之來源搜集,這些分析和信息並未經獨立核實和本人並不保證他們的準確性、完整性、實時性或者正確性。在本網站的行情價格、圖、評論和購買或者出售評分應該謹慎作為僅參考使用,本人不應被視為游說任何訂戶或訪客執行任何交易,您須為所有跟隨在本網站的評論和購買或出售評分執行的交易負責。本人之文章純熟個人意見並沒有邀請或遊說任何人作出任何投資或買賣決定,對任何資料提供及網站的信息和內容如有更改恕不另行通知。本人有權但無此義務,改善或更正在本網站的任何部分之錯誤或疏失。用戶在沒有本人明確的書面同意情況下,不得以任何方式複製、傳播、出售、出版、廣播、公佈、傳遞資訊內容或者利用在本網站的信息和內容作商業用途。投資股票和其它有價證券附帶風險,本人鼓勵您使用有效的風險管理和教育工具,但本人不能並不會保證任何在本網站現在或未來的購買或出售評論和訊息會否帶來贏利。過往之表現不一定反映未來之表現,本人不可能作出該保證及用戶不應該作出該假設。本人也許連結訂戶或訪客至其有興趣的網站,但本人只提供此服務給訂戶或訪客並不為此安排負責。本人對於任何包含於、經由、連結、下載或從任何與本網站有關服務所獲得之資訊、內容或廣告,不聲明或保證其內容之正確性或可靠性。對於您透過本網站上之廣告、資訊或要約而展示、購買或取得之任何產品、資訊資料,本人亦不負品質保證之責任。本文的中英原文如有任何岐異,一切以中文原文為準。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,三柱投資法,投資理財,歐債危機,牛市熊市,美債危機鬧劇,歐美經濟對中國影響,廿一世紀三國時代,歐債危機,供求曲線之投資應用,成交量的啟示,美國財技</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">OT</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">QE3</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,笑說樓價,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">QE4</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,財政懸崖,限漲令,樓價、中國地方債、新三國時代,聯邦儲備基金息率,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">LMCI</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">FED FUND RATE</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,勞工參與率,失業率,環球資金流向,大時代,航母跳板式投資策略</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-90931053233082648212016-06-05T21:29:00.000+08:002016-06-12T21:30:17.422+08:00市盈率投資法謬誤(3)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOX81ZaQOl6W8LcsZxRSmg-ayYzOEIdafrYLQ4kkYvRO2yWxDp77p6JJVb7lX24p2Vjh_IuBsi8YVCDAqP6-P6XXEK-8oaDvQfQeQLBRQ4hA1whC_ugJ4sXxACX6rba-3ORuS-mwrLMiLC/s1600/James_Guthrie_-_To_Pastures_New_1883.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOX81ZaQOl6W8LcsZxRSmg-ayYzOEIdafrYLQ4kkYvRO2yWxDp77p6JJVb7lX24p2Vjh_IuBsi8YVCDAqP6-P6XXEK-8oaDvQfQeQLBRQ4hA1whC_ugJ4sXxACX6rba-3ORuS-mwrLMiLC/s1600/James_Guthrie_-_To_Pastures_New_1883.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">回顧筆者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">自</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2012</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年發文「市盈率投資法謬誤</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(1)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」後,至今已是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2016/6/5</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。過去一段時間</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(2012/1-2016/5)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,市盈率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">P.E.<10X</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">者共</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">13</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次,按「年月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">/
P.E. / H.S.I.Close</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」順列如下</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(1)2012/04/30, 9.98, 21094;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(2)2012/05/31, 8.81, 18630;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(3)2012/06/29, 9.30, 19441;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(4)2012/07/31, 9.47, 19797;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(5)2012/08/31, 9.33, 19483;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(6)2012/09/28, 9.95, 20840;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(7)2015/08/31, 8.94, 21671;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(8)2015/09/30, 8.51, 20846;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(9)2015/10/31, 9.26, 22640;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(10)2015/11/30, 9.01, 21996;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(11)2015/12/31, 8.85, 21914;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(12)2016/01/31, 8.01, 19683;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(13)2016/02/29, 7.90, 19112;<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">可見以月計,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">P.E.<10X</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">共有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">13</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個月。則若以「市盈率投資法」論,當</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">P.E.<10X</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">時就買入,真要遵守原則,過去幾年最少要買入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">13</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次,平均成本</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">H.S.I.</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">20550</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。另,此法以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">P.E.>15X</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">才賣出,以今時今日說,以現時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">P.E.</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按比例估計,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">H.S.I.</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">最少要突破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">38531(20550/8X15)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以上,沽出可獲利約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">87.5%</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。恆指三萬八以上?哈哈!真不知要等幾多年?如果</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">10</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年到,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">10</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年複合回報率平均一年只約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">6.49%</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">;如果</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">5</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年到,則約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">13.4%</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。好叻咩?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">問題是:你會,或者可以,買足</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">13</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次嗎?遵此投資法者,不知在此兩三年間要出手</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">13</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次會否大吃一驚?有些更是連續數月如是啊!按常理,既然相信</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">P.E.<10X</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">已是好價買貨,大概沒有多少人還會多留這樣多手錢吧!不要忘記,到了今天大市仍是徘徊低位</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">PE</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,在升至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">15X</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">之前,可能來日方長,真不知還會有多少次啊!若要依書照辦,究竟要有多少本金呢?合理嗎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">更大的問題是:以上只是事後論證,是今天</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2016</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年回顧至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2012</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,才知道期間有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">13</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次!若以現實說,歷史是跟時間順序出現的,也就是說我們會於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2012/04/30</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">先見到第一次</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">PE<10X</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,之後才會順時遇上其餘的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">12</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次,這時根據「市盈率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(P.E.)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">投資法」應已買入。若然是一到價就傾囊而出,期間眼見市場動盪,指數每下愈況或連月牛皮,心情又是如何?今天,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2016/6/3</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">H.S.I.
Close 20947</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2012</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">至今,期間</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">P.E.</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">從未高於</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">15X</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,應已持貨坐艇多年,亦會錯失去年恆指高見二萬八時的獲利及甩身機會。此法善乎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2016/6/5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 9.5pt;">本文插圖:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 9.5pt;">James
Guthrie ‘To Pastures’. Wikimedia Commons</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 9.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">免責聲明︰本文乃作者個人心得,版權所有,未經嚴謹學術及大量數據驗證,只可作參考,亦不可視作任何投資方法或建議,當中亦可能出現計算上的誤差,極端例子及立論的粗疏而有所偏差,請以獨立思考判斷之,本部落絕對反對高風險投機及短線投資,例如是窩輪,期指,期權,槓桿,短線買賣等等,本人之看法絕不適用!所有內容亦只是推測,只供參考,不可盡信!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">本網站包含的內容和信息乃根據公開資料分析和演釋,該公開資料,乃從相信屬可靠之來源搜集,這些分析和信息並未經獨立核實和本人並不保證他們的準確性、完整性、實時性或者正確性。在本網站的行情價格、圖、評論和購買或者出售評分應該謹慎作為僅參考使用,本人不應被視為游說任何訂戶或訪客執行任何交易,您須為所有跟隨在本網站的評論和購買或出售評分執行的交易負責。本人之文章純熟個人意見並沒有邀請或遊說任何人作出任何投資或買賣決定,對任何資料提供及網站的信息和內容如有更改恕不另行通知。本人有權但無此義務,改善或更正在本網站的任何部分之錯誤或疏失。用戶在沒有本人明確的書面同意情況下,不得以任何方式複製、傳播、出售、出版、廣播、公佈、傳遞資訊內容或者利用在本網站的信息和內容作商業用途。投資股票和其它有價證券附帶風險,本人鼓勵您使用有效的風險管理和教育工具,但本人不能並不會保證任何在本網站現在或未來的購買或出售評論和訊息會否帶來贏利。過往之表現不一定反映未來之表現,本人不可能作出該保證及用戶不應該作出該假設。本人也許連結訂戶或訪客至其有興趣的網站,但本人只提供此服務給訂戶或訪客並不為此安排負責。本人對於任何包含於、經由、連結、下載或從任何與本網站有關服務所獲得之資訊、內容或廣告,不聲明或保證其內容之正確性或可靠性。對於您透過本網站上之廣告、資訊或要約而展示、購買或取得之任何產品、資訊資料,本人亦不負品質保證之責任。本文的中英原文如有任何岐異,一切以中文原文為準。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,三柱投資法,投資理財,歐債危機,牛市熊市,美債危機鬧劇,歐美經濟對中國影響,廿一世紀三國時代,歐債危機,供求曲線之投資應用,成交量的啟示,美國財技</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">OT</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">QE3</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,笑說樓價,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">QE4</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,財政懸崖,限漲令,樓價、中國地方債、新三國時代,聯邦儲備基金息率,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">LMCI</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">FED FUND
RATE</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,勞工參與率,失業率,環球資金流向,大時代,航母跳板式投資策略</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 9.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-53358476673163111372016-04-28T19:19:00.000+08:002016-04-30T19:20:17.931+08:00給讀者的話2016/4/27<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYi_Yu5mBFhtEoF09mbJkBLZqZzmn1m2KU_qkHob6hMHFvoEpsQ1U6beAaQdJBCLDV4tJTS2WCZFP7cMPG7v0OPN_9u7hpFpUBhevf6O8lcQfB22O4fV8h62hSp_EDOdKmKNvtq9GrR2QY/s1600/Caspar_David_Friedrich_032_%2528The_wanderer_above_the_sea_of_fog%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYi_Yu5mBFhtEoF09mbJkBLZqZzmn1m2KU_qkHob6hMHFvoEpsQ1U6beAaQdJBCLDV4tJTS2WCZFP7cMPG7v0OPN_9u7hpFpUBhevf6O8lcQfB22O4fV8h62hSp_EDOdKmKNvtq9GrR2QY/s640/Caspar_David_Friedrich_032_%2528The_wanderer_above_the_sea_of_fog%2529.jpg" width="500" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一年前,筆者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">發文「給讀者的話</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2015/4/27</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」,近日有讀者重溫拙文,留言暢抒所見,筆者亦有所感觸,行文如下,再續前文。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">想贏錢嘅人又好,想返家鄉嘅又好,市場上時常聽到人講或者問嘅就係幾時可以得,一日得唔得?一個星期得唔得?一個月得唔得?一年得唔得?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">……</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">嘩!咁耐牙?我已經好「長線」個囉喎</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">……<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「長線」唔代表會贏,並非絕對至勝之道,要視乎揸咗乜,一手爛橙只會越揸越爛。持貨時間有幾長,只係代表你嘅錢有幾唔等駛嗟!乜有閒錢就會贏嘅喇咩?係咩邏輯?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">股市贏錢唯一辦法就係低買高沽,買要買得到,沽要沽得出;輸錢難度低好多,高買低沽外,仲可以係買咗沽唔出,隻股停牌甚至除牌,股票行出事</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">……</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">輸錢實在易好多!個別股票少沾手,人哋諗住搞邊科,唔通你真係有能力知咩?你係邊位呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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David Friedrich ‘The wanderer above the sea of fog’. Wikimedia Commons.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">免責聲明︰本文乃作者個人心得,版權所有,未經嚴謹學術及大量數據驗證,只可作參考,亦不可視作任何投資方法或建議,當中亦可能出現計算上的誤差,極端例子及立論的粗疏而有所偏差,請以獨立思考判斷之,本部落絕對反對高風險投機及短線投資,例如是窩輪,期指,期權,槓桿,短線買賣等等,本人之看法絕不適用!所有內容亦只是推測,只供參考,不可盡信!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">本網站包含的內容和信息乃根據公開資料分析和演釋,該公開資料,乃從相信屬可靠之來源搜集,這些分析和信息並未經獨立核實和本人並不保證他們的準確性、完整性、實時性或者正確性。在本網站的行情價格、圖、評論和購買或者出售評分應該謹慎作為僅參考使用,本人不應被視為游說任何訂戶或訪客執行任何交易,您須為所有跟隨在本網站的評論和購買或出售評分執行的交易負責。本人之文章純熟個人意見並沒有邀請或遊說任何人作出任何投資或買賣決定,對任何資料提供及網站的信息和內容如有更改恕不另行通知。本人有權但無此義務,改善或更正在本網站的任何部分之錯誤或疏失。用戶在沒有本人明確的書面同意情況下,不得以任何方式複製、傳播、出售、出版、廣播、公佈、傳遞資訊內容或者利用在本網站的信息和內容作商業用途。投資股票和其它有價證券附帶風險,本人鼓勵您使用有效的風險管理和教育工具,但本人不能並不會保證任何在本網站現在或未來的購買或出售評論和訊息會否帶來贏利。過往之表現不一定反映未來之表現,本人不可能作出該保證及用戶不應該作出該假設。本人也許連結訂戶或訪客至其有興趣的網站,但本人只提供此服務給訂戶或訪客並不為此安排負責。本人對於任何包含於、經由、連結、下載或從任何與本網站有關服務所獲得之資訊、內容或廣告,不聲明或保證其內容之正確性或可靠性。對於您透過本網站上之廣告、資訊或要約而展示、購買或取得之任何產品、資訊資料,本人亦不負品質保證之責任。本文的中英原文如有任何岐異,一切以中文原文為準。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">,三柱投資法,投資理財,歐債危機,牛市熊市,美債危機鬧劇,歐美經濟對中國影響,廿一世紀三國時代,歐債危機,供求曲線之投資應用,成交量的啟示,美國財技</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">OT</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">QE3</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">,笑說樓價,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">QE4</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">,財政懸崖,限漲令,樓價、中國地方債、新三國時代,聯邦儲備基金息率,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">LMCI</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">FED FUND RATE</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">,勞工參與率,失業率,環球資金流向,大時代,航母跳板式投資策略</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-42785500981358013862016-04-25T11:23:00.000+08:002023-05-11T23:32:46.522+08:00貓貓故事看股市<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">很多朋友都知道筆者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">十分喜愛貓,也曾經養過貓。筆者與貓相處時,領悟到一些與股市有關的道理,其實也不算是甚麼了不起的道理,只是一些可能讓大家聽來開懷,會心一笑的說法吧!正所謂「子非魚,焉之魚之樂?」,筆者從人的角度去看貓,貓貓心裡真是想甚麼,當然是不可而知的,所以所說的也是有偏差的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">貓是很有靈性的動物,各有各的個性,有的很溫情,有的很自我。溫情的貓會做出很多令人窩心的事,主人開心不開心都好像知道,懂得如何去反應。自我的貓,好像只生活在自己的世界,主人開心不開心,甚至發生甚麼事,根本就不放在心裡。不過,即使是如何知情識趣的貓,又真的明白人們喜怒哀樂背後的原因嗎?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">人在貓面前表現的喜怒哀樂,又一定是真實的嗎?不可以裝出來嗎?真的裝出來,又騙得了貓嗎?貓對人喜怒哀樂的反應,又一定是真實的嗎?真的裝出來,又騙得了人嗎?貓騙得了人,自然人已當真,當然不知道被騙;人騙得了貓,自然貓已當真,固然不知道被騙。人對貓,貓對人,各自對彼此如何反應的理解,大概也是貓以貓的智慧去理解人,人以人的智慧去理解貓,真相到底是如何,那就只有天知道了!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">假設貓真會看出人開心不開心,又會明白原來今天是為了金錢,明天是為了成績,後天是人際關係如何嗎?那些花花碌碌的銀紙,甚至是金光閃閃的黃金鑽石,在貓的眼裡大概連一條小魚也比不上!人類的財富、金錢、地位、學歷、政治、前途,以至人際關係等等,在貓的面前大概是沒有多大意義,甚至是無從認知的事。也許,貓的智慧比人還要高,所以不屑一顧,也許貓的智慧比人低很多,根本無從理解。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">股市是集合了一眾股票買家賣家交易的地方,每一口價都是買賣雙方成交出來的,每一個買家賣家都有各自的交易原因、目標價位、市場心理及行動反應</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">……</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">而集合了眾多成功交易出來的每一個數據,就構成了股市的行情。問題是,一個人可以理解所有買家賣家背後的買賣原因嗎?每一單交易的來龍去脈,一個人又可以掌握得清清楚楚嗎?到頭來,還不是一個估計?也就是一個以自己智慧去理解股市的看法。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">2016/4/25</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">本文主要內容筆者已於「宏觀經濟財神到」</span><span lang="EN-US">110</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">集播出。</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">本文插圖:</span><span lang="EN-US">Odd Eyed
Angora (with minor PS works by Marbo), </span><st1:place><st1:placename><span lang="EN-US">Wikimedia</span></st1:placename><span lang="EN-US"> </span><st1:placetype><span lang="EN-US">Commons</span></st1:placetype></st1:place><span lang="EN-US">. Odd
Eyed </span><st1:place><span lang="EN-US">Angora</span></st1:place><span lang="EN-US"> Original Photo By Ankarakediler - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=18827915">https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=18827915</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">免責聲明︰本文乃作者個人心得,版權所有,未經嚴謹學術及大量數據驗證,只可作參考,亦不可視作任何投資方法或建議,當中亦可能出現計算上的誤差,極端例子及立論的粗疏而有所偏差,請以獨立思考判斷之,本部落絕對反對高風險投機及短線投資,例如是窩輪,期指,期權,槓桿,短線買賣等等,本人之看法絕不適用!所有內容亦只是推測,只供參考,不可盡信!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">本網站包含的內容和信息乃根據公開資料分析和演釋,該公開資料,乃從相信屬可靠之來源搜集,這些分析和信息並未經獨立核實和本人並不保證他們的準確性、完整性、實時性或者正確性。在本網站的行情價格、圖、評論和購買或者出售評分應該謹慎作為僅參考使用,本人不應被視為游說任何訂戶或訪客執行任何交易,您須為所有跟隨在本網站的評論和購買或出售評分執行的交易負責。本人之文章純熟個人意見並沒有邀請或遊說任何人作出任何投資或買賣決定,對任何資料提供及網站的信息和內容如有更改恕不另行通知。本人有權但無此義務,改善或更正在本網站的任何部分之錯誤或疏失。用戶在沒有本人明確的書面同意情況下,不得以任何方式複製、傳播、出售、出版、廣播、公佈、傳遞資訊內容或者利用在本網站的信息和內容作商業用途。投資股票和其它有價證券附帶風險,本人鼓勵您使用有效的風險管理和教育工具,但本人不能並不會保證任何在本網站現在或未來的購買或出售評論和訊息會否帶來贏利。過往之表現不一定反映未來之表現,本人不可能作出該保證及用戶不應該作出該假設。本人也許連結訂戶或訪客至其有興趣的網站,但本人只提供此服務給訂戶或訪客並不為此安排負責。本人對於任何包含於、經由、連結、下載或從任何與本網站有關服務所獲得之資訊、內容或廣告,不聲明或保證其內容之正確性或可靠性。對於您透過本網站上之廣告、資訊或要約而展示、購買或取得之任何產品、資訊資料,本人亦不負品質保證之責任。本文的中英原文如有任何岐異,一切以中文原文為準。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,三柱投資法,投資理財,歐債危機,牛市熊市,美債危機鬧劇,歐美經濟對中國影響,廿一世紀三國時代,歐債危機,供求曲線之投資應用,成交量的啟示,美國財技</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">OT</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">QE3</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,笑說樓價,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">QE4</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,財政懸崖,限漲令,樓價、中國地方債、新三國時代,聯邦儲備基金息率,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">LMCI</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">FED FUND
RATE</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,勞工參與率,失業率,環球資金流向,大時代,航母跳板式投資策略</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-55375249322440144332016-03-29T19:04:00.002+08:002023-05-11T23:32:11.227+08:00投資投機賭博有何分別<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgagHY4hJRuhU_ryRe-oLoLQaGYZxdEpgu5B1JIEhh631iYUtU1KPFrBPTb3JTEEwXFmLKAD6l888vYZoI2cYGuWgWL-DM4VBuDyv7yzC-_Z7SIwvgh5z5IzlcHcJCpLPpV9T4sdfHf3wDE/s1600/Evelyn_de_Morgan_-_Lux_in_Tenebris%252C_1895.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgagHY4hJRuhU_ryRe-oLoLQaGYZxdEpgu5B1JIEhh631iYUtU1KPFrBPTb3JTEEwXFmLKAD6l888vYZoI2cYGuWgWL-DM4VBuDyv7yzC-_Z7SIwvgh5z5IzlcHcJCpLPpV9T4sdfHf3wDE/s640/Evelyn_de_Morgan_-_Lux_in_Tenebris%252C_1895.jpg" width="374" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">未說投資、投機、賭博,有何分別之前,筆者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">先說一下甚麼是資產。資產是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(1)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">可以被人擁有,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(2)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">或有潛力或能力隨著時間增值,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(3)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">或有潛力或能力帶來收益,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(4)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">最終可以套現成現金的東西。當資產在市場套現成現金時,其現金值就是該資產的市值。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">資產可以是有形的,可以是無形的,可分為財務資產及非財務資產。收益不限於金錢等財務收益,亦可以包括非財務收益。有形的財務資產包括股票、物業、現金等,無形的財務資產包括商譽、專利一類知識產權、牌照、合約等。由於財務資產或有潛力或能力帶來財務收益,因此亦可以用貼現率計算財務資產的部分或全部財務價值。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">非財務資產是非金錢可衡量的資產,例如是知識、智慧、社會地位、公信力、影響力等。一個人接受教育,得到知識、學歷、甚至人脈關係等,或可幫助他求得更高或者更好職位、收入、權力、社會地位、影響力、名氣等。其中,帶來的收入,當然是財務收益。而職位、權力、社會地位、影響力、名氣等,一方面是令人獲得更高更多成就感或者滿足感等非財務收益,同時亦是可能帶來更多財務收益的非財務資產。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">資產討論過了,現在就探討一下甚麼是投資、投機及賭博,還有三者的分別吧!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">投資是投資者擁有資產的行為,以每單一交易算,在正常情況,資產沒有受到不可控原因破壞消失下,只要投資者不賣出資產,其擁有資產的時間,基本可由投資者控制及決定。例如一個物業,大概不因為天災人禍被毀,沒有倒塌,是可以一直持有下去的。同樣道理,一隻上市公司股票,只要企業一直經營著沒有倒閉,沒有被除牌,交易所沒有消失,股東是可以一直持有下去的。多說一句,說到這裡,大家大概明白為何</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">總是傾向投資在一籃子持實股</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,或者證監認可基金吧!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">投資者擁有資產的目的,是期望資產帶來收益。先說財務資產,收益可分為兩部分,一是現金流,例如是股票分紅,物業租金,存款利息等;二是資產增值,例如是股價、樓價、貨幣匯價增值等。然而,現金流可以是正數、零或者是負數;資產可以增值、保值或者貶值。因此,不是資產就一定有收益,也不一定會升值。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">此外,不是所有資產都同時具備正現金流及資產增值兩者,有的有前無後,有的有後無前,有的甚至會同時出現負現金流及負資產值。例如是黃金、古董、名畫甚至是一棟租不出去的物業等,本身不產生現金流,為了保障維護它還要付出費用,也就是負現金流,如果以按揭買入物業,而市價比物業淨值還低,便同時出現負資產值。所以,不是擁有資產就一定有收益或者資本增值,回報是高是低是有是無,成功與不成功的投資仍是投資,成功與否最終還要看具體的執行情況,卻不是用來斷定是否在投資的準則。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">現金流本身可以是資產本身的,例如是企業盈利帶來股票分紅,亦可以是由市場或者某些情況去決定的。前者例如是物業租金,後者可以是合法出租車的法定車費。以自由市場經濟而言,資產價值由市場供求決定,現金流是影響供求的其中一個因素,反過來,資產價值亦可能是影響現金流的其中一個因素。例如在自由物業市場中,樓價由樓房供求決定,而物業租值由租賃市場供求決定。然而,物業租值亦可能影響物業價格的計算,物業本身價格又反過來可能影響租金的定立。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">投機是對某一時期某一趨勢的估計作出相應行動,期望從中獲利。由於是某一時期某一趨勢的捕捉,一般而言,以每單一交易算,持有捕捉該趨勢的工具的有效時間,就受有關時間長短的限制,持有人不可持有超越指定時間的上下限。放諸金融產品,例如是大家熟識的備兌認股證</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">窩輪</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一類衍生工具,它們都必定預設了有效時間上下限及行駛價,即使是看對了方向,若果是過了時限才出現,持有的衍生工具也會變成一文不值。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有人或許會說股票短炒,擺明是投機的,卻不一定為時間所限,可以短炒變長揸啊!一般所言股票短炒者,多是撈底博反彈,即是做好倉,真的錯了就是坐,但那只是鏡子的一面,因為投機市場既可做好亦可做淡,持淡倉者,例如是沽空就不到你任性了!再者,既然說得是短炒投機,就應有止賺止蝕位,否則又何以言捕捉某一趨勢?沒有預計交易時間有多短,又何以言短線?此兩者不過是行駛價及時間限制的另一個表現形式吧!所以,短炒變長揸,長揸變牆紙,錯了就坐,本身已偏離了投機,最後改個牌頭變成投資,那是為了掩飾投機失敗的行為,不可混為一談;以投機而言,乃錯誤的執行,不可以偏概全。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">賭博是估計標的事件出現的或然率,押注贏出對手而從中獲利,有贏家就一定有輸家。以每單一交易算,或然率事件出現的時限,由賭局預設。落注的賭客只有賭局參與權,沒有擁有權,賭局時限到了,就定出贏家輸家</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">某些情況或有打和一家</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。例如一場賽馬,鐘聲一響馬匹跑出,馬匹通過終點賽事就完結,立刻定出贏家輸家,卻沒有一家可以超越賽事預設的時限,手上沒有中獎的彩票亦頓成廢紙一張。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">又例如一個牌局,你不可以因為揸了一手爛牌就封牌跑了去,期望可以用持有時間把手上的爛牌坐成好牌,輸就是輸贏就是贏,對手牌面全世界最大,怎做也坐不回給你的。有人或者會說,如果把注碼分開很多注去長賭,不是可以增加賭局的時限了嗎?那只是賭的次數多了,但它的本質仍是沒有改變,賭客始終不能擁有任何一個賭局,每一次賭局完了,他們連賭具也沒有份。又或者有人說可以研究賭術去增加勝算,贏面把握大了就不算賭博,那只是把估計事件出現或然率的能力提升了,本質仍是逃不了或然率的估計及時間的限制,賭仍然是賭。正如前說,回報高低成敗得失不是斷定是否在投資、投機或者賭博的準則。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">說回賭博有贏家就一定有輸家,投資者買賣資產或者獲得收益,不一定有贏家就有輸家,可以是雙贏,可以是雙輸,可以是有贏有輸。投資買了資產,除極端情況外,價值一般不會變零,更或可用時間去守回來,甚至增值;投機若涉及槓桿,輸了,本金很可能付之流水,可守的時間亦有限,決定權亦被動;賭博押錯注,當然是一無所有了!如此說來,你說以借貸槓桿或者買賣衍生工具一類投機行為,與賭博又有甚麼分別呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">分辨投資、投機、賭博三者,其中一個方法就是先檢視手上持有的,是否合乎資產的特質,其中最重要的就是套現現金的可能性及時間性。簡單來說,就是檢驗</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(1)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有否持有資產,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(2)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有否時間限制。正常情況下,在正常交易時段,股票持有人可以不受持有時限,自由賣出手上的大藍籌實股,但賭客不可以賣出他手上的賭局,衍生工具持有人可以在有效時間條款內賣出衍生工具,但時限過後就是一文不值。同樣,一個物業可以用來抵押借錢做按揭,一條隧道一條收費公路可以上市集資套現,一個衍生工具,一場賭局,一張彩票,大抵沒有人會讓你用它們來抵押換錢,更不可能上市掛牌吧!這就是本質與價值的差異。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">當然,極端例子可能是有的,不過,只要不鑽牛角尖,大概道理不難明白。以上所言,都是多年來個人的領悟。市場光怪陸離,無奇不有,有人以賭博或者投機策略去處理投資,有人以投資策略去處理賭博或者投機,頭腦混淆不清者,何足以言勝?常常聽到人們自嘲,短炒變長揸,長揸變牆紙,投資變投機,投機變賭博,大概就是這樣了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">最後,筆者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">從來不愛賭博。「君子愛財,取之有道」,人如果連自己在做甚麼都搞不清楚,一心只想著賺到錢就是了,那又跟趨炎附勢,有奶便是娘者何異?其成敗得失又何足掛齒矣?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; letter-spacing: 1.0pt; line-height: 150%;">2016/3/26<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">註:本文內容可聽筆者網上節目「宏觀經濟財神到」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">106</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">集。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">Article
Photo: Evelyn de Morgan - Lux in Tenebris, 1895</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">Attribute:
By Evelyn De Morgan - Public Domain,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=30643404">https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=30643404</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">免責聲明︰本文乃作者個人心得,版權所有,未經嚴謹學術及大量數據驗證,只可作參考,亦不可視作任何投資方法或建議,當中亦可能出現計算上的誤差,極端例子及立論的粗疏而有所偏差,請以獨立思考判斷之,本部落絕對反對高風險投機及短線投資,例如是窩輪,期指,期權,槓桿,短線買賣等等,本人之看法絕不適用!所有內容亦只是推測,只供參考,不可盡信!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">本網站包含的內容和信息乃根據公開資料分析和演釋,該公開資料,乃從相信屬可靠之來源搜集,這些分析和信息並未經獨立核實和本人並不保證他們的準確性、完整性、實時性或者正確性。在本網站的行情價格、圖、評論和購買或者出售評分應該謹慎作為僅參考使用,本人不應被視為游說任何訂戶或訪客執行任何交易,您須為所有跟隨在本網站的評論和購買或出售評分執行的交易負責。本人之文章純熟個人意見並沒有邀請或遊說任何人作出任何投資或買賣決定,對任何資料提供及網站的信息和內容如有更改恕不另行通知。本人有權但無此義務,改善或更正在本網站的任何部分之錯誤或疏失。用戶在沒有本人明確的書面同意情況下,不得以任何方式複製、傳播、出售、出版、廣播、公佈、傳遞資訊內容或者利用在本網站的信息和內容作商業用途。投資股票和其它有價證券附帶風險,本人鼓勵您使用有效的風險管理和教育工具,但本人不能並不會保證任何在本網站現在或未來的購買或出售評論和訊息會否帶來贏利。過往之表現不一定反映未來之表現,本人不可能作出該保證及用戶不應該作出該假設。本人也許連結訂戶或訪客至其有興趣的網站,但本人只提供此服務給訂戶或訪客並不為此安排負責。本人對於任何包含於、經由、連結、下載或從任何與本網站有關服務所獲得之資訊、內容或廣告,不聲明或保證其內容之正確性或可靠性。對於您透過本網站上之廣告、資訊或要約而展示、購買或取得之任何產品、資訊資料,本人亦不負品質保證之責任。本文的中英原文如有任何岐異,一切以中文原文為準。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,三柱投資法,投資理財,歐債危機,牛市熊市,美債危機鬧劇,歐美經濟對中國影響,廿一世紀三國時代,歐債危機,供求曲線之投資應用,成交量的啟示,美國財技</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">OT</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">QE3</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,笑說樓價,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">QE4</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,財政懸崖,限漲令,樓價、中國地方債、新三國時代,聯邦儲備基金息率,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">LMCI</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">FED FUND RATE</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 10pt;">,勞工參與率,失業率,環球資金流向,大時代,航母跳板式投資策略</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-40717900169527254662015-08-18T19:41:00.003+08:002023-05-11T23:32:19.235+08:00「1998官鱷大戰」恆指圖文 <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk0_OcEHU3dKhXtabGdH3zR25AloWh892mJMQx-LY4xtRHy3GjlxT8jjsZkNzqwjnjoaMJrZsL_B8-e_58FPjaACTdUBQ4DZ9iop1qWi4KPpkqCExzj0uX3asjxXgm_OzSGiZ-37jhmgyc/s1600/MARBO_BLOG_1998%25E5%25AE%2598%25E9%25B1%25B7%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E6%2588%25B0%25E6%2581%2586%25E7%2594%259F%25E6%258C%2587%25E6%2595%25B8%25E5%25BA%258F%25E4%25BA%258B%25E5%259C%2596.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk0_OcEHU3dKhXtabGdH3zR25AloWh892mJMQx-LY4xtRHy3GjlxT8jjsZkNzqwjnjoaMJrZsL_B8-e_58FPjaACTdUBQ4DZ9iop1qWi4KPpkqCExzj0uX3asjxXgm_OzSGiZ-37jhmgyc/s640/MARBO_BLOG_1998%25E5%25AE%2598%25E9%25B1%25B7%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E6%2588%25B0%25E6%2581%2586%25E7%2594%259F%25E6%258C%2587%25E6%2595%25B8%25E5%25BA%258F%25E4%25BA%258B%25E5%259C%2596.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1997</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">10</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">23</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">日「亞洲金融風暴」蔓延香港,國際大鱷群起沖擊港元、股市及期指三大市場,市場形容「如到自動提款機般予取予攜」,港股急跌失守萬點大關。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1998</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">8</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">12</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">日恆生指數跌至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">6660</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">點,自高位算累積跌了差不多</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">60%</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1998</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">8</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">14</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">日,港府宣佈動用外匯基金入市對抗國際炒家,也就是著名的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1998</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">「官鱷大戰」!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1998</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">8</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">28</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">日,開戰兩週,港府世紀千億托市,期指結算單日成交創新高,終全面殺退國際大鱷,大獲全勝,兩日後恆指重上萬點水平。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1998</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">9</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">5</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">日,金局管推七招抗狙擊港元炒家。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1999</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">10</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">11</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">日,港府成立「盈富基金」,以一籃子基金打包期間買入港股,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1999</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">10</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">25</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">日正式公開認購向公眾發售,巧妙地成功讓股份有序重回市場,此舉亦堪稱世界金融創舉。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1999</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">11</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">12</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">日「盈富基金」首日掛牌,單日錄得</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">9%</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">升幅,同時為一場可以說是賭上了全港命運,驚心動魄的「官鱷大戰」劃上完美句號。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">筆者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">承前</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">2015/8/15</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">「宏觀經濟財神到」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">youtube</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">節目第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">75A</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">集,以「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1998</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">官鱷大戰」借古喻今,握要分析前陣子的中國救</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">A</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">股股市及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">2008</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">年金融海潚美國救市。本文除了上述重點說明事件過程,下再根據時序列出各重要事項,並附筆者製</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1997/10/23-1999/11/12</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">恆生指數「官鱷大戰」事件標示圖,方便研究參考之用。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">98</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年官鱷大戰事件時序:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">A)1997/10/23</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:亞洲金融風暴蔓港股失守</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">10000</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">點</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">B)1998/08/05</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:港元被狙擊</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">C)1998/08/11</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:港股跌穿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">7000</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">點</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">D)1998/08/13</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:港股跌至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">6660</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">點</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">E)1998/08/14</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:港府宣佈入市對抗國際炒家</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">F)1998/08/24</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:港府大舉入市</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">G)1998/08/27</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:期指結算在即政府力撐港股</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">H)1998/08/28</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:入市最後一天成功殺退炒家</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">I)1998/09/05</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:金局管推七招抗狙擊港元炒家</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">J)1998/10/30</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:港股重上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">10000</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">點上。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">K)1999/03/16</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:港府制訂出售港股計劃</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">L)1999/10/11</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:港府成立盈富基金宣佈發售詳情</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">M)1999/10/25</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:盈富基金正式公開認購</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">N)1999/11/12</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:盈富基金首日掛牌上市價</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">HK$12.88<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Marbo,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt;">2015/8/18<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">本文插圖:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="letter-spacing: 1pt;">Marbo Blog’1997/10/23-1999/11/12</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; letter-spacing: 1pt;">恆生指數「官鱷大戰」事件標示圖</span><span lang="EN-US" style="letter-spacing: 1pt;">’<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">免責聲明︰本文乃作者個人心得,版權所有,未經嚴謹學術及大量數據驗證,只可作參考,亦不可視作任何投資方法或建議,當中亦可能出現計算上的誤差,極端例子及立論的粗疏而有所偏差,請以獨立思考判斷之,本部落絕對反對高風險投機及短線投資,例如是窩輪,期指,期權,槓桿,短線買賣等等,本人之看法絕不適用!所有內容亦只是推測,只供參考,不可盡信!</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">本網站包含的內容和信息乃根據公開資料分析和演釋,該公開資料,乃從相信屬可靠之來源搜集,這些分析和信息並未經獨立核實和本人並不保證他們的準確性、完整性、實時性或者正確性。在本網站的行情價格、圖、評論和購買或者出售評分應該謹慎作為僅參考使用,本人不應被視為游說任何訂戶或訪客執行任何交易,您須為所有跟隨在本網站的評論和購買或出售評分執行的交易負責。本人之文章純熟個人意見並沒有邀請或遊說任何人作出任何投資或買賣決定,對任何資料提供及網站的信息和內容如有更改恕不另行通知。本人有權但無此義務,改善或更正在本網站的任何部分之錯誤或疏失。用戶在沒有本人明確的書面同意情況下,不得以任何方式複製、傳播、出售、出版、廣播、公佈、傳遞資訊內容或者利用在本網站的信息和內容作商業用途。投資股票和其它有價證券附帶風險,本人鼓勵您使用有效的風險管理和教育工具,但本人不能並不會保證任何在本網站現在或未來的購買或出售評論和訊息會否帶來贏利。過往之表現不一定反映未來之表現,本人不可能作出該保證及用戶不應該作出該假設。本人也許連結訂戶或訪客至其有興趣的網站,但本人只提供此服務給訂戶或訪客並不為此安排負責。本人對於任何包含於、經由、連結、下載或從任何與本網站有關服務所獲得之資訊、內容或廣告,不聲明或保證其內容之正確性或可靠性。對於您透過本網站上之廣告、資訊或要約而展示、購買或取得之任何產品、資訊資料,本人亦不負品質保證之責任。本文的中英原文如有任何岐異,一切以中文原文為準。</span><span lang="EN-US">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,三柱投資法,投資理財,歐債危機,牛市熊市,美債危機鬧劇,歐美經濟對中國影響,廿一世紀三國時代,歐債危機,供求曲線之投資應用,成交量的啟示,美國財技</span><span lang="EN-US">OT</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,</span><span lang="EN-US">QE3</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,笑說樓價,</span><span lang="EN-US">QE4</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,財政懸崖,限漲令,樓價、中國地方債、新三國時代,聯邦儲備基金息率,</span><span lang="EN-US">LMCI</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,</span><span lang="EN-US">FED FUND RATE</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,勞工參與率,失業率,環球資金流向,大時代,航母跳板式投資策略</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-26852128701016296042015-06-24T05:49:00.000+08:002023-05-11T23:33:38.331+08:00Marbo鋼琴變奏曲Crying Rain<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/96T17bUfsiU/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/96T17bUfsiU?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
Crying Rain是選自Marbo(作曲家名Mapochi)前作鋼琴變奏曲La Folia 72
Variations的最終章,由於筆者創作原曲時靈感不斷,結果決定寫成一個可以獨當一面的演奏曲目,雖然72個變奏段一氣呵成,就好似一首完整的交響曲一樣,然而演奏時間亦相對一般鋼琴獨奏曲長。故此,筆者在創作的時候,別出心裁把樂曲設計成可作選段演奏,這首Crying
Rain也就是這樣獨立出來而成的了。<br />
Marbo,2015/6/24Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-63907793790680095202015-05-02T12:27:00.000+08:002023-05-11T23:32:30.013+08:00航母跳板式投資策略<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhowKBjcvV38Ds3qqzwo4qepn4glQyWHjMZpyhqZRaYQQQeLcTt_Seb0zQAXJLfW46Njjgd_ayk1rJ6bdw_Q1-x7qRUpSYrdHWMsH96h2sShdPjZYNy1hYeRMB7JgbqIZU2nWAAH76Yb1E4/s1600/JMW+Turner_The+Fighting+Temeraire.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" closure_lm_478179="null" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhowKBjcvV38Ds3qqzwo4qepn4glQyWHjMZpyhqZRaYQQQeLcTt_Seb0zQAXJLfW46Njjgd_ayk1rJ6bdw_Q1-x7qRUpSYrdHWMsH96h2sShdPjZYNy1hYeRMB7JgbqIZU2nWAAH76Yb1E4/s1600/JMW+Turner_The+Fighting+Temeraire.JPG" height="476" iua="true" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">今期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">2015/4/30</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">「宏觀經濟財神到」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">60</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">集,筆者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">分享了一個自己多年前領悟出來的「航母跳板式策略」,所指的就是一個以「相關市場一籃子</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">」為中心,由「個別股票」換馬至該「一籃子</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">」及兩者因時制宜來回互換,有若跳板過渡的避險投資策略。眾所周知,由於「個別股票」的風險雖然比相關市場「一籃子</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">」的大,因為前者除了市場風險還有本身的非市場風險,回報率卻不一定較優勝,因為「一籃子</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">」包含了眾多行業龍頭,也有跑贏的可能。故此,由「個別股票」換馬至「一籃子</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">」,本身就是一個把風險降低,卻未必一定會犧牲回報率的方法。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">若果以海軍艦隊想像之,可以說個別股票是一艘戰艦,身形較小,行動較快,宜攻不宜守;相關市場一籃子</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">就是航空母艦,身形龐大,行動較慢,宜守不宜攻,不過兩者都是向著同一目標進發的,只是速度幅度有異。好日子風平浪靜的時候,以戰艦全速攻擊奪取更高利潤,天陰陰風起雲湧的時候,就跳回航空母艦避險!等到風雨過後看清形勢,才不慌不忙去考慮究竟是以戰艦再度出擊,還是安守原狀跟著大勢飄,來來回回就好像玩跳板那樣,是為「退可攻,進可守」之策!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">此有別於「進可攻,退可守」。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">具體應用來說,在面對個別股票止賺、止蝕或者潛在風險時,很多時投資者都會有所猶豫,因為一方面怕賣掉股票後股價續升走失機會,繼續持有又恐懼股價續跌蒙受損失。這當然是假設仍然看好大市,否則乾脆離場就是了吧!無論如何,在這進退兩難的情況下,筆者就會把個別股票賣掉,同時買入相關市場一籃子</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">,例如持有的是恆指成份股就換馬去恆指</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">A</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">股就換去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">A</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">股</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">H</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">股就換去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">H</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">股</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">,如此類推。當然,如果持有的個股不是相關市場成份股,那就只有找表現、市場或性質相近的一籃子</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">了,原理是盡量避開個別公司或者行業的風險,卻仍然留守在股市之中。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">這樣,假如止賺</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">止蝕</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">是對的,即是該股票股價續跌,之前跳了過去的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">卻不一定會隨之下跌,因為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">本身還有很多其他股票不一定同時也下跌,原有的個別股票不過是其中之一。反之,更有可能因為此起彼落而打個和,甚至是做得更好,可以說是受到了「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">航母」的保護了。另一方面,如果止賺</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">止蝕</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">是錯的,即是該股票股價續升,之前跳了過去的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">也應會受惠,因為</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">本身也包含了原有的股票,幅度可能遜色了一點,但也說不定,因為好的可以是百花齊放,又或者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">內其他股票大幅跑贏了。當然,壞的可以是相反情況,估計也不會太強差人意吧!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">如此一來,筆者就可以安心冷靜去慢慢看清楚形勢,又何須日夜為自己沒法分析之事而牽掛?等到事情明朗,這才決定要不要由「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">航母」跳回「個別股票戰艦」,不慌不忙,做又可以,不做也可以!事實上,經過多年實踐經驗所得,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">發現往往到了最後,手上持有的都差不多變成了「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ETF</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">航母」,最終回報卻不遜於持有原來的個別股票!哈哈哈!航母可能是慢一點,不過「遲到好過無到」嘛!再者,若非想出這個「航母跳板式投資策略」,筆者大概早已被市場逼走了,又哪有能奈守到今日跟大家談笑風生呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">2015/5/2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">本文插圖:</span><span lang="EN-US">J.M.W. Turner ‘The Fighting Temeraire’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">.Wikimedia Commons.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">免責聲明︰本文乃作者個人心得,版權所有,未經嚴謹學術及大量數據驗證,只可作參考,亦不可視作任何投資方法或建議,當中亦可能出現計算上的誤差,極端例子及立論的粗疏而有所偏差,請以獨立思考判斷之,本部落絕對反對高風險投機及短線投資,例如是窩輪,期指,期權,槓桿,短線買賣等等,本人之看法絕不適用!所有內容亦只是推測,只供參考,不可盡信!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">本網站包含的內容和信息乃根據公開資料分析和演釋,該公開資料,乃從相信屬可靠之來源搜集,這些分析和信息並未經獨立核實和本人並不保證他們的準確性、完整性、實時性或者正確性。在本網站的行情價格、圖、評論和購買或者出售評分應該謹慎作為僅參考使用,本人不應被視為游說任何訂戶或訪客執行任何交易,您須為所有跟隨在本網站的評論和購買或出售評分執行的交易負責。本人之文章純熟個人意見並沒有邀請或遊說任何人作出任何投資或買賣決定,對任何資料提供及網站的信息和內容如有更改恕不另行通知。本人有權但無此義務,改善或更正在本網站的任何部分之錯誤或疏失。用戶在沒有本人明確的書面同意情況下,不得以任何方式複製、傳播、出售、出版、廣播、公佈、傳遞資訊內容或者利用在本網站的信息和內容作商業用途。投資股票和其它有價證券附帶風險,本人鼓勵您使用有效的風險管理和教育工具,但本人不能並不會保證任何在本網站現在或未來的購買或出售評論和訊息會否帶來贏利。過往之表現不一定反映未來之表現,本人不可能作出該保證及用戶不應該作出該假設。本人也許連結訂戶或訪客至其有興趣的網站,但本人只提供此服務給訂戶或訪客並不為此安排負責。本人對於任何包含於、經由、連結、下載或從任何與本網站有關服務所獲得之資訊、內容或廣告,不聲明或保證其內容之正確性或可靠性。對於您透過本網站上之廣告、資訊或要約而展示、購買或取得之任何產品、資訊資料,本人亦不負品質保證之責任。本文的中英原文如有任何岐異,一切以中文原文為準。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">,三柱投資法,投資理財,歐債危機,牛市熊市,美債危機鬧劇,歐美經濟對中國影響,廿一世紀三國時代,歐債危機,供求曲線之投資應用,成交量的啟示,美國財技</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">OT</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">QE3</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">,笑說樓價,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">QE4</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">,財政懸崖,限漲令,樓價、中國地方債、新三國時代,聯邦儲備基金息率,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">LMCI</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">FED FUND RATE</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">,勞工參與率,失業率,環球資金流向,大時代,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 27px;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span>航母跳板式投資策略</span></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-53178690217353102682014-03-29T09:43:00.000+08:002023-05-11T23:35:48.486+08:00投資市場供求新論<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">「投資市場供求新論」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog"><span style="color: purple;">2014/3/28</span><span style="color: purple; font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">【</span><span style="color: purple;">Marbo-Blog</span><span style="color: purple; font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">】</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">︰在說明</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的投資供求新論前,我們先簡單扼要回顧一下傳統的供求理論。古典經濟學先假設人</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">需求者及供應者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的經濟行為是理性</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Rational)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的。需求者追求「滿足感最大化」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">U</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">tility Maximization</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,供應者追求「利潤最大化」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Profit Maximization</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在自由市場經濟下,供求曲線是一對互相背馳的曲線。在圖表中以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Y</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">軸為價格、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">X</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">軸為數量,需求曲線由左上方向右下方下斜,即是所謂的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Downward Sloping</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,代表價格與需求數量為反比關係,價格越高需求數量越少,反之亦然。供應曲線由左下方向右上方上斜,即是所謂的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Upward Sloping</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,代表價格與供應數量為正比關係,價格越高供應數量越多,反之亦然。</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">供求數量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Quantity demanded/ Quantity supplied)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">隨著價格上落而增減,表現的就是供求曲線在某一個經濟條件下的價格與數量關係。在圖表上是「價格與數量在同一條曲線上移動」的關係變化,即是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Movement along the same curve</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。供求曲線之斜度</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Slope)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的大小,就是曲線中數量對價格的敏感度或稱之彈性</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Elasticity)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">幅度。曲線斜度越大,即是曲線相對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">X</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">軸越接近垂直,則數量對價格敏感度越低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(More </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Inelastic)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">﹔曲線斜度越小,即是曲線相對</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">X</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">軸越接近水平,則數量對價格敏感度越高</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(More Elastic)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">值得注意的是,本身的價格與數量不是直接影響供求增多或減少</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Increase/Decrease of Demand/Supply)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的因素,而是其他微觀及宏觀「非本身價格」因素所致。以需求來說,例如是需求者口味、收入;以供應來說,例如是生產技術、成本。還有就是替代品價格、政府稅率、國家政策、天然災害、氣候改變等等。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在圖表中,供求增多或減少以「整條供求曲線移動」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Shifting of curve)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">為表述,即是在同一價格下多了或者少了供應量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">/</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">需求量。供應增加時,供應曲線向右方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">向外</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">移出﹔供應減少時,向左方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">向內</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">移入。同樣地,需求增加時,需求曲線向右方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">向外</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">移出﹔需求減少時,向左方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">向內</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">移入。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">自由市場運作時,供求曲線兩者相交成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">X</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">形,相交點為平衡點</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">E</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">quilibrium Point</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,其相對的價格及成交量,就是平衡點價格及成交量</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Equilibrium Price & Quantity</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,即是供求雙方都滿意的一個相同價及量,也就是市場那一刻達成的成交價及量,當供求曲線的移動及改變,成交價及量亦隨之變化。</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">以上的是古典經濟學中的供求理論簡述,固然是很重要的經濟學基礎,可是卻不能完全解釋到投資市場上的供求買賣行為。而所謂投資</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">/</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">投機,不單指狹義的股票、房地產一類傳統市場,廣義來說,任何可以通過一手或二手市場轉賣</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">/</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">轉買而從中獲利</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">/</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">損失的商品交易亦包含其中。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">不自量力,以一己綿力嘗試去補充,對自由經濟下的投資</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">/</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">投機市場供求行為,主要有以下</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">3</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">個新論點︰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(1)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">「投資市場行為受恐懼與貪婪主導,表現非理性」﹔投資市場供求相方買賣行為,並非如古典經濟學假設的理性</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Rational)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,卻是受到「恐懼與貪婪」心理主導而往往表現得非理性</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Irrational)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,或者說得好一點是顯得「情緒化」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Emotional)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。例如是「高買低賣」,買方見到價格越高越想追買,價格越低越不敢買﹔賣方見到價格越升越捨不得出售,價格越跌越想早點沽貨離場等等行為。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">升市時,持貨者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">供應方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">越升越捨不得賣出,一方面是「貪婪」,不想過早獲利少賺了﹔另一方面是「恐懼」,怕賣出後價格再升賺不盡,之後想買回成本更高。未持貨者或者未有足夠貨者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">需求方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,一方面是「貪婪」,想早點買入去獲利多點﹔另一方面是「恐懼」,怕買入後價格下跌被套牢,不買又怕日後成本越來越高,利潤更少。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">跌市時,持貨者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">供應方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">越跌越捨不得賣,一方面是「貪婪」,有利潤的捨不得賺少了,虧損的不想輸了「不應該輸」的錢,怕賣出後價格回升,那就是本來「不應賠錢」或者「應該賺錢」變成了賠錢或者賺少了﹔另一方面是「恐懼」,怕越跌越多最後越賺越少,甚至虧損累累,想早點沽貨離場。未持貨者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">需求方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">越跌越不敢買,一方面是「恐懼」,怕買入後價格續跌賠錢﹔另一方面是「貪婪」,希望日後價格再跌買入成本更低,利潤更深。以上可見,「恐懼與貪婪」心理是同時存在於買賣雙方的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(2)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">「價格的雙重身份造成供求曲線的雙重移動」︰在投資市場,由於買方今天的買入價就是明天賣出的成本,買方買入後到明天賣出時,身份就由「需求者」變成「供應者」。買入時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">成為需求者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">所付出的價格就是成本價,賣出時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">成為供應者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">所收到的價格就是售出價。付出成本時,當然是價格越低越好,售出時是收入,當然是價格越高越好。然而,這都是在說同一件貨,甚至是同一個人,只是時間不同,心態就完全相反了,可見其中的「恐懼與貪婪」心理矛盾有多大,也正正是這個微妙的心理矛盾,造成了市場一個又一個的泡沫形成及爆破!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">以投資標的物來說,由於價格擁有雙重身份,是「賣方昨天的成本、今天的收入﹔買方今天的成本、明天的收入」,收入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Revenue)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">大於成本</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Cost)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">就是賺錢,反之則是賠錢,所以價格對供求曲線也兼負了雙重影響力︰一方面是傳統的價格數量在同一條曲線的移動</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Movement along the same curve</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,即是在不同價格時,買賣雙方可以買賣多少。另一方面是供求增多減少,是整條供求曲線的移動</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Shifting of curve</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,即是在同一個價格下,人們</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">包括原來的供需方及新增減的供需方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">願意買賣更多或者更少。也就是說,隨著價格的改變,不但影響到供求兩方的數量,更影響到供應及需求兩者的增減。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(3)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">「投資市場泡沫的形成及爆破」︰如果大家明白上述的供求說法,大概不難以此解釋投資市泡沫的形成及爆破。首先,先說泡沫形成,假設市場本來是處於某一個平衡點,有一天,不知道甚麼原因需求增加,即是在同一個價格下買的人多了,圖表上就是需求曲線向右移,形成價量齊升。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">本來價格升了,有貨的人應該會更願意賣出手上的貨獲利,可是由於大家見價格一直在升,人人都看好行情,預期價格會繼續上升,之前賣了的人都在後悔賣得太平太早,有貨的人反過來開始惜售,不願意「平賣」,即是在同一個價格下賣的人少了,圖表上就是供應曲線向左移,價格進一步被推上,成交量減少。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">買的人見狀信心大增,之前賣了的人見賺少了就更是後悔,因為預期價升可以賺取更多利潤,沒貨的固然要買,之前賣了嚐過甜頭的反過來更加要買,越來越多「末買的要買」、「買了的要再買」及「賣方變成買方」,造成更多人或者同一個人投放更多錢去追捧。心理上,即是買賣的人一方面貪婪想多賺點,另一方面恐懼早賣了日後要用更高價買回來。不要忘記,這當中的買賣方可能是同一個人,只是時間不同身份不同。就是這樣,慢慢形成了惡性循環,價格被越推越高,形成泡沫。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">到了一天,全世界可以買的資金都耗盡了,成交量自然不繼,慢慢變成有價無市,價格終於見頂。最後賣的人發現再沒有人有能力以更高的價格去買,自己手上持有的貨量根本賣不出去,可是貨總要賣了出去才算是賺錢啊!你等得,市場上大有人等不得,等不得的為了套現就只有降價求售,可是無論怎樣減價也是沒有人買啊!因為市場上可以買的已買盡,人人都是手中有貨沒錢,所謂賤物鬥窮人。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">如此,價格只升不跌的預期被打破,有貨的人開始怕賣不掉,自然越來越多人降價但求脫手,供應持續增加。然而,由於人們預期價格下降,即使有錢的人也不會急於買入,因為明天可能會更平啊!這一方面是貪婪,想買平一點將來可以多賺﹔另一方面是恐懼,怕買貴了將來要賠本。何況,現在是人人有貨沒錢?就是這樣,價格越跌,需求越減少,供應越增加,形成惡性循環,泡沫爆破。到了一天,當想賣可以賣的貨都賣盡了,供需雙方都少無可少,價格成交量低無可低,就是見底之時。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">最後,筆者對投資市場泡沫形成與爆破的分析,與索羅斯說的「自反性理論」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">Reflex</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">i</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">bil</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">i</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">ty)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,即是「自我膨脹」因果互推有點相似,只是索羅斯並沒有配合供求曲線理論去分析。另一方面,筆者也想起了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">1953</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年由「新古典學派」經濟學家哥爾曼</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">William Gorman</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">提出的「上斜需求曲線」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(Upward sloping Demand curve)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。不過哥爾曼的假設為單一買方,而且沒有察覺到對價格推動需求曲線向外向內移動的因素。綜合而言,則兩者都未可完整解釋投資市場的供求關係,及其泡沫形成爆破的供求原理矣!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog"><span style="color: purple; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">Marbo Blog</span><span style="color: purple; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">「隨意網」</span><span style="color: purple; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">Xuite</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">總部經已開張,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">如欲第一時間閱讀最新發文,歡迎蒞臨以下網址賜教及留言︰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 9.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog"><span style="color: purple; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Herbert James Draper,’A Young Girl by a Pool’</span><st1:place><st1:placename><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">.Wikimedia</span></st1:placename><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><st1:placetype><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Commons</span></st1:placetype></st1:place><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">免責聲明︰本文乃作者個人心得,未經嚴謹學術及大量數據驗證,只可作參考,亦不可視作任何投資方法或建議,當中亦可能出現計算上的誤差,極端例子及立論的粗疏而有所偏差,請以獨立思考判斷之,本部落絕對反對高風險投機及短線投資,例如是窩輪,期指,期權,槓桿,短線買賣等等,本人之看法絕不適用!所有內容亦只是推測,只供參考,不可盡信!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">本網站包含的內容和信息乃根據公開資料分析和演釋,該公開資料,乃從相信屬可靠之來源搜集,這些分析和信息並未經獨立核實和本人並不保證他們的準確性、完整性、實時性或者正確性。在本網站的行情價格、圖、評論和購買或者出售評分應該謹慎作為僅參考使用,本人不應被視為游說任何訂戶或訪客執行任何交易,您須為所有跟隨在本網站的評論和購買或出售評分執行的交易負責。本人之文章純熟個人意見並沒有邀請或遊說任何人作出任何投資或買賣決定,對任何資料提供及網站的信息和內容如有更改恕不另行通知。本人有權但無此義務,改善或更正在本網站的任何部分之錯誤或疏失。用戶在沒有本人明確的書面同意情況下,不得以任何方式複製、傳播、出售、出版、廣播、公佈、傳遞資訊內容或者利用在本網站的信息和內容作商業用途。投資股票和其它有價證券附帶風險,本人鼓勵您使用有效的風險管理和教育工具,但本人不能並不會保證任何在本網站現在或未來的購買或出售評論和訊息會否帶來贏利。過往之表現不一定反映未來之表現,本人不可能作出該保證及用戶不應該作出該假設。本人也許連結訂戶或訪客至其有興趣的網站,但本人只提供此服務給訂戶或訪客並不為此安排負責。本人對於任何包含於、經由、連結、下載或從任何與本網站有關服務所獲得之資訊、內容或廣告,不聲明或保證其內容之正確性或可靠性。對於您透過本網站上之廣告、資訊或要約而展示、購買或取得之任何產品、資訊資料,本人亦不負品質保證之責任。本文的中英原文如有任何岐異,一切以中文原文為準。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"> Marbo</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,三柱投資法,投資理財,歐債危機,牛市熊市,美債危機鬧劇,歐美經濟對中國影響,廿一世紀三國時代,歐債危機,供求曲線之投資應用,成交量的啟示,美國財技</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">OT</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">QE3</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,笑說樓價,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">QE4</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 13.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,財政懸崖,限漲令,樓價、中國地方債</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-37046606729071831262014-02-24T05:21:00.000+08:002023-05-11T23:34:50.135+08:00與年輕朋友說轉工<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">與年輕朋友說轉工</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog"><span style="color: purple; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 150%;">2014/2/24</span><span style="color: purple; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">【</span><span style="color: purple; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo-Blog</span><span style="color: purple; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">】</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">︰年輕朋友晴晴很上進,最近為了轉工而有點拿不定主意,留言與</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">商量,筆者一方面感謝朋友的信任,一方面亦覺責任重大,縱不才仍盡力去幫忙分析,希望朋友最後可以做個精明的決定。以下有關對話,筆者再感謝朋友雅量不棄與眾分享經驗。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">晴晴︰「考過一次筆試,過了兩次面試後,收到一公營機構的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">offer</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,正諗緊轉唔轉好?人工</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">10%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">加幅,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">benefit</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">比現時多。但我擔心公營機構進去後,日後人工加幅不知會如何?新工作是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">contract</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">制,我又擔心萬一唔續約,點算?萬一我唔想做落去,轉返私營,會唔會好困難?被歧視?偶像,您見多識廣,經驗豐富,我想聽聽您的意見。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">P.S.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">︰一次筆試,兩次面試,感覺很有挑戰性!」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">︰「恭喜先!真係叻女!我對現時公營機構情況不夠</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">update</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,知道的是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">out</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">了點點,請注意!第一,據我所知,一般而言,合約制是大勢,好難有長約,有說以後可能可以轉去長約,不過不容易,預左年年續,有一定壓力,不過,私人工又有咩『保障』呢?你可以諗真啲丫!第二,做落人工點同前途如何,你應該問吓顧主,覺得可以考慮先做一兩年,實際睇清人事同形勢再決定以後點。根據你以前嘅講法,入政府係你理想,咁,呢間係唔係近磅呢?要你自己先知,又有無可能日後轉去『理想政府工』呢?要搞清楚。定係等一等考你心中嘅政府工呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">拿,做野係講際遇,做過公營亦可以係入翻私營嘅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">selling point</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,一切睇你事業運,係唔係?而家無法判斷,唔做會唔會後悔?係就拿出勇氣吧!最多做半年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">review</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,唔掂走人仲可以當放左個長假,又或者到時</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">sell</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">自己理解左公營機構運作,所以比只有私營</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">experince</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">嘅更有『多角度思考能力』囉!路係人行出來的,凡事都可以靈活處理,無話一定模式嘅,係唔係?」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">晴晴︰「多謝您成日都鼓勵我呀!我都唔係叻,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">in terms of </span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">人工,大把同我同</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">age</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">嘅高過我。佢地有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">commission</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">又跑數,但我唔鍾意呃人或者為左自己咁功利。當然,錢冇人嫌多,只係睇我追求嘅係咩生活,我都明白嘅。就算做左公營機構,我都要不停</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">improve</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">自己,會再考更高嘅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">position</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">!哈!有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">D</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">人覺得</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">E+</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">嘅年輕人轉工轉得快,唔穩定。但的確,向上流嘅機會係比以前少,如果我留係度,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">title</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">可能升左,但變動唔會太大。同時,我地呢一代係急進少少嘅。哈哈哈!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">最近,我都有追韓劇</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">睇完要抽離,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">^^</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">世上冇咁唯美</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,自學緊韓文,好有趣,認識左</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">D</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">韓國人,我教佢</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">cantonese</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">佢教我</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">korean</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,好慶幸我一出世就講幾乎係最難嘅語言。我覺得能夠學一種新語言,可以聽講讀寫都</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">master</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">到,仲可以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">native</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,好勁架!」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">︰「事實係叻女,唔駛謙!人比人比死人,世上又何來兩個你呢?無兩個你又點比較呢?係唔係?人地搵錢有人地搵,你生活有你生活,當然,講歸講,我都一樣會同你有同樣心理,因為我都只係凡人,不過見多左,『奶得野多人自醒』,學精左啲咁啦!唔,睇你都係想去試架喇,我都話係咁!不過未見你下決心前,唔想影響你。拿,先做一年,一年內睇吓點,再考試上去。你係天生考試精,有心有力果隻,其實政府工</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">即係可以靠考試升職果類</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">幾啱你。哎!趁後生搏吓啦!唔通到我咁嘅年紀先尼料咩?社會都唔比機會我地啲老野啦!你試吓</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">send</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">個</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">cv</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">填咁嘅年紀啦!你就明喇!所以,年輕人,唔好妄自菲薄!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">向上流動難左?幾時都難架啦!流上左果個出尼威,你迷覺得佢易囉!死左果個唔通仲出尼攞條屍比你班友鞭咩?傳媒啲野,為左收視,成日搞野,都明啦!客觀講野?一定跌紙人數少啦!其實,你無睇到我地果個年代死左果班嗟</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">因為死左當然睇唔到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">!我地嘅年代,即係而家年輕人認為易</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">do</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">嘅年代,唔係鬼佬一定升唔到上去最高果浸,永遠都係阿二阿三嘅阿二阿三。咁,中國人點變鬼佬呢?整容</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">+</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">漂白,係唔係好灰?好似</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Michael Jackson</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">咁?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Thats why he did it</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">!強如佢都走唔甩,只不過又有邊個估計到時移勢易,而家美國黑人係最</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">hit</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">囉,歌影視體軍連總統都出埋!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">呢樣只係講明時運,你又點知你唔係?將來你啲細路一樣同你講你地以前好撈過佢地!無他,見人已知之事,係人都見到人地容易,正如你今日睇翻尋日個市,乜唔易炒咩?幾多點上落都知啦!咁明日呢?自己面向未知數,當然是徬徨,感到困惑,好多老野話同年輕人講唔掂,又或者相反,都係同一道理,你參透了就明白了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">語言真係好奇妙又有趣,我都好鍾意,只係限於資質,能力有限,只可以說是知少少啦!唔緊要啦!又唔係同人比咩,自己開心迷得囉,係唔係?最近煲劇,睇左神探狄仁傑</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(1)-(4)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">輯,一輯</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">40</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">集倒啦,哇,好正喎!必睇囉!我們的對話很有意思,可否讓我行文出</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">blog</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">與大家分享?」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">晴晴︰「</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">ok</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">呀!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">e+</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">我個腦成日都係韓文同韓劇。哈哈!」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">溫馨啟示︰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7.5pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog"><span style="color: purple; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo Blog</span><span style="color: purple; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">「隨意網」</span><span style="color: purple; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">Xuite</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">總部經已開張,歡迎蒞臨以下網址賜教及留言︰</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog"><span style="color: purple;">http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; letter-spacing: 1pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">本文插畫︰古斯塔夫皓珀</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; letter-spacing: 1pt;">G</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; letter-spacing: 1pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">ustave </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; letter-spacing: 1pt;">C</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; letter-spacing: 1pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">ou</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; letter-spacing: 1pt;">r</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; letter-spacing: 1pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">bet </span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; letter-spacing: 1pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">名畫「少女與海鷗」</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; letter-spacing: 1pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">‘</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; letter-spacing: 1pt;">Mädchen mit Möwen’. Wikimedia Commons.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-966472003344058858.post-80638202562596675292014-01-23T14:27:00.000+08:002023-05-11T23:35:01.186+08:00網誌雜感<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">網誌雜感</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog"><span style="color: purple;">2014/1/23</span><span style="color: purple; font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">【</span><span style="color: purple;">Marbo-Blog</span><span style="color: purple; font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">】</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">︰夜深人靜,百感交集,腦海裡想起了很多事</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">……</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">近一個月來,為了搞那個「宏觀經濟財神到」網上節目,真是用了不少心機和時間,寫文章的時間自然少了。老實說,行文有行文的樂趣,可以邊寫邊想邊喝杯咖啡,又可以打下速成,邊估估字是怎樣寫,好像在玩猜謎一樣,也不失為一種樂趣。不說不知,筆者輸入法是自學的,多年來由邊查邊寫到現在已是「心想字成」了!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">2013</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年的聖誕節也正好是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Yahoo Blog</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的最後日子,那天之後,陪伴了筆者和一眾網友多年的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Blog</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">就沒有了。偶爾上網時碰到了到今天仍保留著的舊快按鍵,看到出來的是沒有此網站的通告,心裡實在唏噓萬分!時至今日,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">對於在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Blog</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">上認識的每一位朋友也是時時有想起的,很多大家說過的話仍是會記得。時光飛逝,轉眼快五年,今天,有的仍在留言,有的已不知去向,人生聚散本無情,只是何必生我有情?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">說回那個「宏觀經濟財神到」網上節目,要搞真是下了不少決心,時刻心裡都有些負面想法暗湧出來去叫自己放棄!筆者當然深明經營之道,今時今日,一沒泊碼頭、二沒有宣傳,再加上始終沒有講「冧把降」,也想過大概是吃力不討好的多!不過,筆者只想做應該做的事,自反而縮雖千萬人而吾往矣!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在製作第一集之前的一天,筆者還在想著不去做好了,只是最後還是一股傻勁的去做,心裡的勇氣就是來自想著各位了!在這裡再一次感謝大家的支持!節目是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">DIY</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的,製作需時,有時趕不上當天發放,讓大家久候,請多包涵!每星期初,我和高輝都會商量一下新一集節目內容,大家各自搜集資料。到了星期五收了市,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">就帶著錄音器材去錄音,當然,之前還會對一對稿,夾一夾,幾集過去,通常準備得好好的四五頁紙內容,最後都只會用上不到一半。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">錄音好了,已是晚上六點多七點,筆者帶著回</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Studio</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">開始編輯也是八點過後,還末有時間吃晚餐,先把不要的內容及蝦碌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">NG</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">之類除去,這一步最折騰人,翻來覆去,可以沒完沒了,一來一回,節目有多久就最少要翻聽多久乘以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">n</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">次,最後加上那一首最近才製作好的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Opening</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">及前前後後的封面封底製成短片,上載前再由頭到尾監聽一次,當然去到網站上載又要搞一輪設定之類,十五分鐘片就差不多是上載十五鐘,正好可以吃點充飢的。如果是像</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">4A</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">「發個黃金夢」那一集的劇場版,就要另做音效,甚麼地獄回音、陰風陣陣之類,當然不是說有就有,都是要去選去改去試的,那次也搞了不少時間才滿意。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">說起了那首片頭音樂,本來是沒有想過自己作的,最早想到是一首很應境的流行曲,當然要尊重人家版權,絕對不會偷雞,只是一問之下,除了每年要付不少版稅,更要經幾個機構每年審批一次,可是等到他們幾個都同意時,大概已不知是何時何日何價了!最大問題是如果以後有一年他們任何一個不批,之前有用過它的錄音也隨時有可能要全部刪去!即使是繼續批准使用,新舊都要年年付款!那豈非是本末倒置,客大於主,妹仔大過主人婆?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">最後,還是靠自己作、奏、錄、混音吧!不用說了,版權全是我的!嘿,難得到我嗎?順帶一提,帶上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Headphone</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的朋友大概可以聽到那段開始由九支分成三組的法國號吹奏的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Fanfare</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,是被刻意安排三支一組一左一右一中輪奏的,左右兩邊是強奏的主音部,中間的是加上了三支雙簧管較柔和的和聲部,這樣就不會與置中的人聲重疊搶聲而產生混亂,所以人聲在這樣宏大的音樂下仍可清晰聽到,那是早在作曲時已在腦裡聽到的了。現在很多作曲家、製作人連這一點最基本的錄音常識也不懂,甚麼都聚在一堆,效果又如何會好呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">好了,花了那麼多功夫,除了很多朋友欣賞之餘會問筆者外,有時自己也會問自己,到底是為了甚麼呢?首先,當初寫</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Blog</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">是為了兌現當年的一個承諾,行文只望與有緣人分享知識,行善道尋真理別無他求,只想以客觀開放態度去討論,在尋真理之間辨識真理。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">至於做節目,一方面想在不同層面無私分享知識,也照顧一些上班下班坐車又或者閒時想聽一聽節目輕輕鬆鬆吸收知識的聽眾,與及為沒有太多宏觀經濟知識基礎的朋友,提供一個深入淺出的認真分析。另一方面,筆者平日亦有不少經濟投資內容部份太散範圍太廣,雖然對讀者有用但不便成文,總不可以一兩句就是。最後是因為不少朋友與筆者閒聊時,都表示有感市面太少認真為普羅大眾講解分析宏觀經濟的節目,一不是太深奧博士論文一樣,一不是阿媽是女人意思不大,再差一點就是謬論連篇談不上學術,可能是各為其主,可能是各行其是,可能是認真就會輸了吧!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">同朋友高輝膽粗粗以聲會友,一心想可以輕鬆一點拉雜閒聊般說說有用的投資及經濟道理和心得,希望人人日日都財神到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">(</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">故出其名</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,亦有自得其樂教學相長互相學習的成份,最後筆者意想不到的就是每次去看見多了一個</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">like</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">、一個</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">share</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">、一個留言,又或者是多了讀者、訂閱人數的那一份無價的滿足感了!哈哈,想起來也很單純和傻仔!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">本文圖是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Yahoo Marbo Blog</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">搬遷通告及最後發表文章的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Print Screen</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 16pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">,給大家留念。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; letter-spacing: 1pt;"> 溫馨啟示︰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 7.5pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 7.5pt; line-height: 150%;"><a href="http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog"><span style="color: purple; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Marbo Blog</span><span style="color: purple; font-family: 新細明體; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">「隨意網」</span><span style="color: purple; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 1pt; line-height: 150%;">Xuite</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">總部經已開張,歡迎蒞臨以下網址賜教及留言︰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><a href="http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog"><span style="color: purple; letter-spacing: 1pt;">http://blog.xuite.net/marbomarbo/hkblog</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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